Why nobody can win it…

How boring are all these stories about who can win the World Cup and why England/Spain/Brazil/South Korea/Portugal can win it?  “If Rooney stays fit, England have a great chance” or “Spain’s midfield looks supreme” or “Brazil are finally defensively sound” or “if South Korea bribe the referees again as in 2002, they’ve got a chance” or “Portugal have no Quim”.

Not only are they boring, but those writing them are missing a trick.  They’ve got a one in thirty-two chance of being right.  That’s not a lot.  That’s tough.  That’s a lot of people being proven wrong.

I, on the other hand, like to be proven right, so I’ll go for a thirty-one in thirty-two chance, and guess who CAN’T win the World Cup.  In fact, sod it, I’ll name more than that, and then I’ll be right every time, except one.  I’m happy with those odds.

So, let’s go through who won’t be lifting the World Cup, and the reasons why…

Rio Ferdinand

Thanks to Emile Heskey.  Actually, I do mean that Heskey should be thanked.  Ferdinand hasn’t had a good game for England in about 18 months, and has barely played for Manchester United this season.  When he has played, he has looked nowhere near his best.  Two years ago he was arguably the best centre half in the world.  Now he looks ponderous and error-prone.  He also doesn’t look like he’s anywhere near fully fit.  Granted, Ledley King’s not exactly the epitome of good health, but at the same time, at least when he plays he looks capable of finishing the game, if not the warm-down afterwards.  I no longer rate Matthew Upson much, but I’d be happy enough with King or Michael Dawson in alongside John Terry, if not even Jamie Carragher.  I was worried about Ferdinand pre-tournament, and this could be a blessing in disguise.

Still, I actually meant teams, but I wanted to be topical.  Who else won’t win it then?

Mexico, Uruguay, South Korea, Greece, USA, Slovenia, Australia, Serbia, Denmark, Japan, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia, North Korea, Switzerland, Honduras and Chile

Let’s face it, they’re all shit.  Some are shitter than others, but they’re still all shit.

They’re all no hopers.  The majority of them would struggle to give Leyton Orient a game.

Slovenia, for example – their best player has just been released by West Bromwich Albion.  How are they meant to cope playing a side full of Chelsea, Manchester United and Spurs players?

As for some of the others, North Korea?  What, seriously?  Are they really in it?  New Zealand’s best player plays for Plymouth Argyle.  Chile have a player called Waldo Ponce.

Yes, some of them might be ok.  Serbia and Denmark may make it to the 2nd Round, but even then they’ll be beaten by a proper team with a full set of proper players rather than one or two who play in top leagues and the rest who play in Belgium.

So, there you go, already that’s 18 teams who won’t win the World Cup.  Easy, this.

Who else won’t win it?

A team with a black goalkeeper

Science and history combined prove that a team with a black man between the sticks won’t win it.

Black goalkeepers are rubbish.  That is science.  People may think that it’s lazy racism on my part, but it’s not.  They’ve brought it on themselves.  As a Birmingham City fan, I have seen this first hand in the shape of Richard Kingson.  He made one Premier League appearance, was rubbish, gifted Portsmouth the win, and was soon shipped out.  He’s now Wigan Athletic’s fourth choice ‘keeper, and that’s behind that Serbian bloke with long hair and short sleeves who is rubbish himself, so that tells you how bad Kingson is.  Yet he is Ghana’s first choice.  Ghana, a team wishing to be taken seriously, have Kingson in goal.  I’m not sure why it is, but black goalkeepers are rubbish.  In all other positions black people tend to be fine – Maicon, Ashley Cole, Ledley King, Marcos Senna, Robinho, Didier Drogba – but they can’t do it in goal.  That is science.

As for history, well, like science, you can’t argue with history.  No team has won the World Cup when they’ve had a black goalkeeper playing for them.  Brazil have won the World Cup five times, and on each occasion they’ve had a white man in goal.  The only successful black man in gloves ever is Michael Jackson, and he won’t be lifting the World Cup either.  And some boxers, I suppose.  They’d struggle to lift the World Cup too though, what with the size of boxing gloves.

So, if Mr Capello is reading this, then bear that in mind and play Joe Hart or Rob Green.  Preferably Hart, because I have a worry that Green listens to too much Motown judging by some of his performances this season.

If a black goalkeeper isn’t going to get his hands on the trophy (probably because he’d drop it), then that then rules out…

African teams

And, in fairness, it’s not just down to the hue of their shot stoppers.  They could get Jerzy Dudek on loan and they still wouldn’t.

Every four years we get told that this is an African team’s year.  Just because Cameroon fluked a win against Argentina in Italia ’90 and then Senegal did the same against France in 2002,  people seem to believe that the African teams are competitive.  They’re not.

In the 90s it was Nigeria who were going to win the World Cup.  Then early this decade it was Cameroon.  In 2006 and this year it could be Ivory Coast.

Well, it won’t be, will it?

Like Serbia and Denmark, each of the teams has about two good players, and then the rest play in the French second division, in Qatar or for Portsmouth.  Yes, Drogba (if fit) is world class, but then the centre half plays for Hibs.  Yes, Samuel Eto’o is top drawer, but then Andre Bikey plays for Burnley.

Of course they’ll be entertaining and will probably be involved in some 5-3 games, but none of them actually have a chance of winning the thing.  In fact, none of them will probably progress through the group stages.

As for the idea that host nations often do well, that’s only when the host nation is good (Brazil, England, Argentina, France, Germany) or when they cheat (South Korea).  South Africa, like the other African teams, have no chance, just like…

Ireland

The World Cup’s 33rd team.

They’re worth an honorary mention in that, whilst they won’t win it, they’ll probably try and either claim that they did or get FIFA to change the rules so that they did.  Like, for example, when they were drawing with France and Thierry Henry expertly used his hand (he could be a goalkeeper… no, wait…) to set up a French winner.

Ireland then wrote to FIFA saying, “yes, ok, we were only drawing the game and France were all over us at the time and would have most likely gone on to score anyway or beaten us on penalties, but seriously, please, can’t we go to the World Cup instead of them?  Please?  WE NEARLY DREW WITH FRANCE – IS THAT NOT ENOUGH??”

Clowns.

Right, that only leaves nine teams who might win it now, given that we’ve discounted the other twenty-four (including Ireland).  Who else won’t win it?

Germany

Write them off at your peril, they say.  Well, actually, this time just write them off.

Yes, sure, they’re never fancied, but they always do well when it counts, but not this time.  Their squad is littered with mediocrity.  That they’re worried about losing Chelsea’s least effective player to injury illustrates that.  Lahm apart, the rest of the squad is average at best.

Germany’s best striker, by a distance, is Kevin Kuranyi, and he’s not in the squad.  Klose and Podolski (both in the squad) have about six goals between them all season, and seem to be living off past reputations.  Kiessling (of Bayer Leverkusen) is a good striker, but probably won’t be involved much as Joachim Low persists with the more high profile, more rubbish strikers.

With Ballack out and Schweinsteiger still adapting to his holding role, the midfield is about as threatening as butter.

Germany will not win it.

Nor will…

Portugal

People actually say that they don’t look as strong as in previous years, but with Ronaldo, Nani, Simao and Liedson, plus Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso, they have a pretty talented set of players midfield onwards.

Still, and perhaps it’s just my perception, there doesn’t seem to be the belief there this time, either from Portugal or from others looking in – perhaps based on their shocking (and near disastrous qualifying campaign).  Defensively, without Bosingwa, they look a little one-paced and whilst Carvalho is class, some of the others in defence (and in goal) are a little short of top class, like Bruno Alves.

Portugal, for me, won’t win it.

Joining them in not winning it will be…

England

Sorry, but like all the other teams, England won’t win it.

There’s an over reliance on Wayne Rooney to carry the team, and regardless of what people say, his temperament is questionable and he will be a target for teams looking to get him to react.

If Rooney doesn’t perform, either due to form, suspension and injury, hopes will be placed on the shoulders of Gerrard and Lampard.  Gerrard’s had a worryingly poor season by his standards, and there’s no real sign of improvement, whilst Lampard seems to perform in qualifiers and then freeze on the big stage.

The centre halves have to be a massive worry too.  Terry and Ferdinand two years ago were brilliant – the best partnership in world football.  Now Ferdinand’s out, but that’s no great loss.  Terry too though has been fairly poor this season, doesn’t look fit and probably couldn’t be blamed for having other things on his mind, like what his opponent’s missus looks like.

Then there’s the indecision over who will be in goal, plus the lack of depth to the squad.  A few injuries and suddenly Carrick, Warnock and Heskey may be in?  It’s enough to send a shiver down the spine.

No chance, England.  No chance.

Just like…

Italy

Four years ago everyone said they were too old, but they won it.  They have the same squad now and are genuinely too old.

Cannavaro’s just signed for a club in the UAE which tells you all you need to know about his ambition now, and the likes of Gattuso, Pirlo and Camoranesi, yes, they were fresh and effective ten years ago, but now?

Claudio Marchisio is pretty ace and will inject some energy to the midfield, but they’ll need it because otherwise, seriously, they’re too old.  Like the England rugby team of 2003 who peaked and were at their absolute optimum for the World Cup in Australia, so Italy did four years ago.  They’re on a downward curve now and won’t even make the semi finals.

Argentina

Diego Maradona.

France

They’ve not been spoken about a lot, the French, but when you look at their squad on paper, it looks strong.  Ribery, Malouda and Gourcuff are top players all in form, and with strong characters behind them, both in midfield and defence, they look decent.

I do worry about their goalscoring ability though, with Henry not the player he was, Anelka seemingly becoming more of a link man, Govou ageing and Cisse, Ban Arfa and Gignac not proven at the top level.

Also, a bit like Argentina, they have a coach who has the capacity to ruin everything in Raymond Domenech, who at times baffles people with his decisions.  Throw in their stuttering qualifying and their recent defeat to China and they can be written off too.

Holland

Cruyff, van Basten, Gullit, Rijkaard, Bergkamp, de Boer, Kluivert, Kemy Agustien, van Nistelrooy.  The Dutch have always had some of the best players on the planet.  They’ve never been able to put it together at a World Cup though.

This time it’s Sneijder, van Persie, van der Vaart and Robben – all superb players.  They won’t do it though, mainly because they never do.  It’ll all go wrong, because it always does.  That’s about the best argument you can come up with for Holland not winning it.  Plus their defence is rubbish.

Brazil

They’ve become too un-Brazilian.  Dunga, a horribly boring (yet effective) footballer has become their horribly boring (yet effective) manager.

Sure, they’re nice and solid and have some top defenders, but Kaka’s been injured and out of form, Robinho’s been playing in the equivalent of the League of Wales for the past six months, Ronaldinho’s not there and you just feel that the Brazilian flair that is their hallmark and, after all, a key part of their success, is going to be lacking.

Sure, they have Nilmar, Grafite and Luis Fabiano, but they’re not quite the standard of players that you expect to carry a team all the way through a World Cup and so Brazil, unfortunately for them, won’t win it.

All of which means that there’s only one team left who won’t win it, and that is…

Spain

They’re too small for a start.  How are they going to defend corners and set pieces?

Also, a bit like Holland, everyone always says “this is their year”, but they generally can’t perform on the big stage either.  Granted, they did it at the European Championships, but they had a group there that New Zealand could have qualified out of (if they were European), edged past Italy on penalties in the Quarter Final, got lucky and faced Russia again in the Semi Final, having beaten them 4-1 in the group stage and then won 1-0 against a poor Germany side in the final.  It was a poor tournament that they won, and this is a different kettle of fish.

This time they’ll come up against better teams (not in their group, mind, which is piss easy) and they’ll return to their always the bridesmaid type role.  Heavily fancied, but ultimately not one of the two who make it to the front.  Not sure that’s quite what that expression means, but it still works.

The pressure on them will be huge too with so much expectation – can they handle that?  Will teams have seen how easily Inter Milan disposed of Barcelona (the club version of the national side) in the Champions League and taken that on board?

Spain may be favourites, but they won’t win it either.

In fact, having read all that, you’ll be able to establish that no one will.

I guess, in reality someone will actually win the World Cup though, and logically if I am going to tip someone, it’ll have to be the team that I struggled to write off the most.  Completely unexpectedly to me, that’s Holland.

I still say they won’t win it though.  At least I know I will be right thirty-one times (plus Ireland).