Jakob Henrikksen and the obligation to opine…

I was young once.  I mean, I still like to think that I’m relatively young – I’m an 80s child, and that’s not old, is it?  But when I say that I was young once, I probably mean more that I was carefree – no wife, no kids, no mortgage, no proper job.  I’ve got all those now, and it eats into my time A LOT.  When you add in watching football, drinking, WhatsApp Group Chats and gambling, I really do have limited time to spend on the internet.  Certainly not like I used to.

It’s not that long ago that I regularly used SHA – I was the self-proclaimed “lifeblood of the site”.  As other things ate into my time though, like the kids and the job, I realised that I was only the lifeblood of the site because I was always bloody on there, with an opinion on everything.  It forced me into having opinions on matters that were, in fact, a complete irrelevance to me.  I’d get into arguments with strangers on the internet as to whether Jakob Henrikksen’s 12 goals in 53 games in the Danish Second Division was a good record or not, and whether he was a ‘classic number 9’ or whether he was better suited ‘in the hole’.  And I’d have this argument because Wigan Athletic, who Blues may or may not have been competing for a play-off place with, had supposedly offered £1.2m for him.  And, in truth, in the grand scheme of things, I didn’t give a shit about who Wigan Athletic might sign.  I didn’t know anything about the Danish Second Division.  Until that morning I hadn’t even heard of bloody Jakob Henirkksen.  But I felt obliged to have an opinion, because that’s what people on the internet do, isn’t it?  They have opinions on everything?  I had time on my hands to sit on an internet football message board all day, read everything on there, and form an opinion on EVERYTHING.  I was compelled to have an opinion on EVERYTHING.  Sometimes, I’d form an opinion first and then spend time on Google searching for facts to back up the opinion I’d already formed.  It’s what you do on the internet.

But what you also do on the internet, when you’ve got time on your hands and once you’ve formed your opinion, is you fight to the death to defend it.  You form an extreme opinion that won’t waver.  You refuse to look at things objectively.  You’re incapable of seeing the other side.  You can’t be balanced about it.  There’s no ‘in between’ – you take one side or the other, and whoever opposes you is then your sworn internet enemy.

Then, one day, I simply didn’t have time for SHA any more.  It took up too much of my time.  I preferred the immediacy and brevity of Twitter, not to mention the fact that you could filter out those whose opinions/thoughts/etc were utter bollocks.  I enjoyed that.  And, suddenly, I found that I didn’t have to have an opinion on everything.  I would skim things.  I would gloss over things.  I would ignore things.  Then, occasionally, something would catch my interest and I’d share an opinion on it.  I share a lot of opinions on there – many of which are about Blues – but I no longer feel obliged to have an opinion on everything.  Some things, to me, are just ‘meh’ as the ‘Rowett Youth’ might say.  Of course I have an interest in Donald Trump and Syria and Brexit, but I don’t necessarily force myself into having a strong opinion on those subjects for the purposes of relentlessly posting on the internet about them.  I can remove myself from certain things.

What’s my point?  Well, I’ll come to that in a minute…

Firstly though, let me address something I do have an opinion on – Blues sacking Gary Rowett. 

My initial reaction was one of shock – I couldn’t believe the news.  It wasn’t ‘bad’ shock or ‘good’ shock; it was just ‘unexpected’ shock.  No one saw it coming.  But then, four days earlier, I’d been at St James’ Park to witness Rowett’s Blues side capitulate against a Newcastle side that didn’t get out of second gear, but had previously lost at home to Wolves, Huddersfield and Blackburn, and subsequently lost at home to Sheffield Wednesday.  I’d expressed anger about that display on Twitter – I certainly did have an opinion on that performance, one that was shared by the majority of Blues fans who made the trip.  Another Twitter user* tweeted that he was “seething” after Newcastle’s fourth goal.  The week before that, I was at St Andrews when Barnsley beat Rowett’s embarrassing Blues 3-0 (we’ve since drawn 2-2 with them at their place).  Until his sacking, Blues’ last half-decent performance under Rowett had been a 1-1 draw at home to Aston Villa.

What frustrated me (and plenty of others) about Rowett was a lot of his negative football, even against teams you’d hope we’d be on the front foot against.  The same Twitter user*, the day after Blues had lost 2-0 at Burton Albion (Rowett’s former club whom he’d taken to play-off failure twice before his successor earned automatic promotion), tweeted “How Rowett views away games at mid-table Championship teams [picture of a serene park] v the reality [hell]”.  Following a 3-1 home defeat to Wolves, the same Twitter user*, in response to a tweet questioning Rowett’s tenure at the club and the likelihood of a defeat at home to Villa, said “We won’t get mullered, it’ll be a boring 0-0 draw as Rowett kills off the spectacle”.

I was also frustrated by Rowett’s selection in key games, as was the same Twitter user* who, at the back end of last season, tweeted “This [blog] is just a whinge about… Rowett’s selections in key games” – presumably reference to how Blues, under Rowett, whimpered to the end of last season having been in a promising position around February.  People then questioned Rowett’s team selection for the first game of the season, at home to Cardiff City, feeling it was a bizarre line up from Rowett, with the same Twitter user * tweeting “Bizarre line up from Rowett”.

Rowett’s record in the transfer market frustrated me – I felt he had signed a number of duds, as did the same Twitter user* who referred to Rowett signing “more duds” this time last year.  At best, Rowett’s record in the transfer marker was a mixed bag – lots of panic buys/loans that didn’t come off, but then the likes of Shotton (who he originally brought in to play right back, only for that to fail and for him to stumble upon him as a centre half) and Morrison.  This was a view shared by the same Twitter user* who, three days before Rowett was dismissed, said of his transfers “Been a mixed bag so far.  Lots of panic buys/loans that haven’t come off, but then the likes of Shotton/Morrison” and said “I’m not sure” when asked if he had faith in Rowett spending wisely this January.  You can’t blame that Twitter user* for being unsure of Rowett’s transfer record having spent money on the likes of Nicolai Brock-Madsen (gone forever), Che Adams (wouldn’t pick him), Diego Fabbrini (wouldn’t pick him) and Greg Stewart (wouldn’t pick him).  Indeed, Rowett’s final game was a 2-1 victory over Ipswich Town which was ground out after he picked a total of six players (Spector, Grounds, Gleeson, Davis, Cotterill and Donaldson) that he’d inherited, and him leaving a number of his money signings on the bench or not including them at all.

In addition to the negative, uninspiring football, the poor selections in key games, and his record in the transfer market, my final real bugbear with Rowett was his ‘game management’ – particularly his substitutions.  Very rarely was he able to impact a game going against Blues or drifting away from Blues positively during the course of the game (Sheffield Wednesday at home this season being one exception that springs to mind).  I struggled to defend Rowett after his substitutions in the Wolves home game, as did the same Twitter user* who tweeted “I can’t defend Rowett after yesterday.  The Tesche for Adams sub was outrageous.”  That game also seemed to include a bizarre formation change to avoid subbing off Gleeson or Davis, as the same Twitter user* noted, tweeting “Bizarre formation change to avoid subbing off Gleeson or Davis”.

When you add all of the above to the fact that Rowett had seemingly flirted with various other Championship clubs with a view to ditching Blues, allegedly being on the verge of going to Fulham, then allegedly speaking to QPR and Wolves (and maybe others), then it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that people at Blues may have begun to get a little fed up with him.  A decent proportion of rational-thinking fans were beginning to get fed up with him – I know plenty of people who watched virtually every game Blues played under Rowett, if not all of them, and they were becoming increasingly tired of the lack of entertainment, negative football, poor game management, etc.  Attendances at St Andrews seemed to suggest that others shared the same frustrations as those fans, myself and the Twitter user* I’ve referred to.

So, Rowett was sacked.  Was I shocked?  Yes.  Would I have done it at that time?  No.  Did I lose any sleep?  No.  Did I cry about it?  No.

There’s something I don’t have an opinion on yet – that’s the appointment of Gianfranco Zola.  Would he have been my first choice?  No.  In his first four games, have there been signs of a shift of emphasis in playing style?  Yes.  Have they all been positive?  Far from it.  Should he be given more time to be judged, given he’s effectively been brought in to change the shape of the squad over the January transfer window and beyond?  Yes.  It’s very much ‘wait and see’ for me, although I do have some doubts.  However, for years Blues have played things safe with managers, not taking a bold step, and relationships with the likes of Fry, Francis, Bruce and McLeish (as managers) have been allowed to fester for too long, to the point of becoming untenable.  Do I like the fact that, for once, we took a bold step and acted before a relationship with a manager became broken?  Yes, I find that quite refreshing.  I keep reading that we were “only 3 points off 3^rd” when we sacked Rowett (which is a funny way of saying “7^th”) – we were only 3 points off 11^th too, and were showing signs of going backwards (3-0 v Barnsley, 4-0 v Newcastle) rather than progressing.  With Rowett getting itchy feet, it may only have been a few weeks or months before things did turn sour.

Ok, all of that’s fair enough, but what the hell was all the stuff about having opinions on the internet about?

Fair question.  I was, until only a few years ago, guilty of constantly seeking to ram my opinion on matters down the throat of people on the internet.  I was constantly on SHA.  I wrote ‘match reports’.  I had an opinion on everything.  It was a bit of an obsession, and I secretly quite liked the fact that it rubbed a number of people up the wrong way though.

The difficulty on having (and expressing) an opinion on absolutely everything though, is you lose track of what your opinion actually is, end up contradicting yourself and coming across as a hypocrite.  Take the Twitter user* I’ve referred to, for example.  Here’s a chap who evidently shared a great number of frustrations over Rowett with myself and plenty of other fans.  However, he’s now taken the time to write a blog attacking those who are refusing to shed a tear over Rowett’s departure.  There’s balance amongst an awful lot of Blues fans – no one called for Rowett’s head, not one person.  No one had a street party when he left.  No one know how Zola will do.  No one knows if we’ve done the right thing or the wrong thing – we’ll see. 

But imagine feeling the need to take such an extreme stance that you write a blog attacking people for saying things that they’re not even saying in any event.  Imagine coming up with names for different ‘sides’ to an argument that you yourself are trying to generate.  Imagine revelling in Blues defeats because it suits your arguments.  Imagine championing an extreme opinion now that contradicts an awful lot of what you’ve been saying over the past 12 months.

Some of you will need to imagine that, but not me – I used to do it all myself, until not that long ago. 

Some are still keeping up the act.

(Oh, *@VivaBrownie)

Jobs

It looks like Chris Hughton might be off to the bright lights of Norwich.  As I write this, permission for them to speak to him has been granted.  He might not go, but I suspect that he will.  For the purposes of this blog, assume that he does…

The word “loyalty” will be banded about as it inevitably is in such circumstances.  Hughton will be accused of being disloyal in leaving one job to take another.  That always happens, because when it comes to football, rational people take leave of their senses and consider it to be somehow different to the real world.  It’s not.

Do I want Hughton to leave?  No.  Will I be a bit pissed off if he does leave?  Yes.  However, if I fully engage my brain and think about it, can I understand why he would want to make the move?  Of course I can.  I’d be being very silly if I pretended not to understand.

You have to think about it in employment terms, you see – don’t get blinded by it being football.  It’s no different.

Imagine that you joined your current employer about twelve months ago and have performed well in your role since then.  Everyone has taken to you – employees who report to you, your bosses, the customers.  People in the industry recognise what a good job you have done.

Then, a competitor comes along and offers you a job.

The competitor is currently operating at a higher level than you have been doing and can provide you with the resources for you to really showcase your talents and try and establish yourself as one of the best in your field.  Oh, and they will double or perhaps even triple your current salary.

Think about your salary.  Then think about doubling it to work for a competitor who are in better shape than your current employer.  Would you say “no”?  If so, you’re a little bit mental.

The above doesn’t even take into account Blues’ current situation.  No accounts are being published, there have been rumours for months of administration being only weeks away, the owner is in prison and the club is under a transfer embargo meaning that the work Hughton put in last season could be undone with a few players sold and no one coming in.  Really, can anyone at all blame him for fancying a move to Norwich?  A provincial club, of course, and in the grand scheme of things, a club presently virtually maximising  its potential when Blues have a lot more, but even so – look at the clubs at the moment.  It is, to quote Craig Gardner, a no-brainer.  To deny that would be ridiculous.

After Blues’ season last year, Hughton’s stock is high – he’d be mad not to try and capitalise, particularly given Blues’ circumstances.  If he stayed, was unable to bring anyone in and had to sell a few players, there is a chance Blues could finish mid-table or worse next season.  If under Hughton’s stewardship Blues finished 17th in the Championship in the 2012/13 season, do you think Premier League clubs would be looking at him then?  Of course not.  Putting club loyalties aside, he’d be mad not to consider it.  There have been managers in the past who one minute have big reputations and then a few years later can’t get a job – Iain Dowie, Phil Brown, etc.  Strike whilst the iron’s hot, and all that.

So forget your “loyalty” argument.  It’s garbage.  Why should Hughton show Blues any loyalty?  98% of people would do exactly the same in his circumstances.  Probably more than 98%.

Ryan Giggs is always cited as a great example of “loyalty” in football.  Well it’s easy to be loyal when you’re at Manchester United, have won about 13 Premier Leagues, however many domestic cups, two European Cups, etc.  Had Giggs broken through at Blues or Norwich or Bolton or Coventry or Portsmouth, do you think he’d have been loyal throughout his career then?  Of course not.  Don’t be silly.

This happens at all levels of football – go down to non-league and you’ll find fans of clubs who at some point in time have been fuming that their manager or a player has moved to a local rival who are higher up the league or offer a better package.  Last summer Blyth Spartans fans were fuming when Robbie Dale, their winger, left to join Whitley Bay.  It happens.

It always has happened (Herbert Chapman stunning Huddersfield by quitting to take over at Arsenal in 1925) and it always will happen.  It will happen to Blues again in the future.  It will happen to other clubs too.  We’re not special.  Don’t take it to heart.

It’s not football – it’s life.  The sooner people realise that football exists in the real world – just like everything else – the better.

Good luck to Chris Hughton at Norwich.  Thanks for a good season.  Time to move on now.  That’s life.

KFC at Tibshelf, ‘The Cube’ and roulette…

It’s a long, long road, right?  Yeah, yeah – we all know that.  And there’ll be joys and sorrows too, won’t there?  Again, we realise that.  As has been said a million times, those words so accurately reflect Birmingham City’s history.

It equally applies to this season too, which has really been microcosm of Blues’ history – 95% utter garbage, with a few memorable moments thrown in along the way.  Predominently utter garbage though.

Of course, saying that about a season in which Blues have won their only real proper trophy ever and qualified for Europe sounds a little bit mental, but that’s the 5% which has been memorable – that night against the Villa, that night against West Ham and that Sunday afternoon against Arsenal.  If you took that away though, what an utterly abysmal season this would have been.

If this season was a long, long road, then for the vast majority of the season our driving has been shambolic – we’ve hogged the middle lane, we’ve had people swearing at us and we’ve had to call the RAC out at least three times.  It’s been traumatic.  It’s been an ordeal.  We did, however, stop at the services and had a ball. We won £20 on the fruit machine and then ordered a Snackbox at the KFC only to be handed a Variety Bucket with extra Popcorn Chicken.

That’s what the Carling Cup was – it was the service stop in an otherwise dreadful journey.  Don’t get me wrong, it was the service stop to beat all other service stops and we’ll treasure the taste of the chicken skin forever and ever, but it masked what was an otherwise horrible journey.

The journey’s nearly over now, and whilst we’re still remembering how wonderful the Hot Wings tasted, we’re also trying to avoid the mother of all car crashes.  If Blues somehow survive at White Hart Lane, we’ll all thank God that we somehow got through the journey unscathed and wonder quite how we did it.  If not, the consequences of the crash could be pretty horrific. 

Alex McLeish has been driving us on this journey, and should he be forgiven for how bad it has been because he let us have KFC at Tibshelf?  It’s a fair question.

To me, winning a cup (particularly the League Cup) doesn’t mean that someone is a top class manager.  It’s a fantastic achievement, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not the most difficult thing in the world for a manager.  Steve McClaren has won the League Cup as a manager.  Graeme Souness has won the League Cup as a manger.  They’ve both been sacked plenty of times and are currently working in television.

In winning the Carling Cup, Blues (in my mind) won one game that they wouldn’t have been expected to win.  One game.  They got past Rochdale and MK Dons (though not necessarily comfortably) before needing an injury-time equaliser to take a home game against Brentford to penalties, which they subsequently won.  Blues then faced Villa at home and, at the time, were above them in the league and favourites with the bookies to win – they did.  Next was bottom of the table West Ham over two legs.  Blues were beaten by ten men away from home before coming back to win in extra-time at home.  Again, Blues were favourites to progress through the tie and were a good few places above West Ham (who have now finished bottom of the league) at the time of playing them.

Now, let’s not say that it’s easy to win all of those games – Blues have lost many games that they’ve been expected to win in the past.  However, they were all games you would expect to win.  Blues then had one more, no one expected them to beat Arsenal, and they did.  It was magical.  It was wonderful.  It will stay with us all forever.  However, it was one game against better opposition that was won.  That doesn’t make a great manager.  Lawrie Sanchez’s Wycombe beat Premier Leauge Leicester City once.

If you look at McLeish’s time at Blues in terms of league football (which is, after all, the bread and butter), then I think it’s right that it is scrutinised and probably criticised. 

McLeish arrived with more than enough opportunity to keep Blues in the Premier League.  He failed to do so.  He was, to some degree, cut some slack as “it was Steve Bruce’s team”, and perhaps that was fair.  McLeish still ultimately failed though.

In his second season, McLeish got Blues promoted straight back to the Premier League.  Fair achievement?  Well, possibly, but Blues were helped by having by far and away the strongest squad in the division after the board held on to the likes of James McFadden and Seb Larsson and even added to that people like Lee Carsley.  For that level, the Blues squad was immense and probably one of the strongest seen there since some of the Middlesbrough squads in the mid-90s.  The wages, for that level, were astronomical.  Promotion was to be expected really, in the circumstances, and Blues stumbled over the line.

Then there was last season which included a run of fifteen games that have perhaps kept McLeish in his job until now.  There was the “unbeatables” run.  McLeish found a team that suddenly clicked, would simply not concede goals, and went fifteen games unbeaten.  It was great.  It was lucky too, but it was great.  Blues finished 9th and the season was heralded as a success, and rightly so.

What it did overshadow though is that for about two thirds of last season, Blues were pretty much as poor as they have been this season.  In particular, the run from February onwards (when McLeish inexplicably refused to play Christian Benitez whilst insisting on playing other players who were clearly dead on their feet each week – Lee Bowyer for one), Blues were appalling.  They won two of their last eleven games – one away at Portsmouth (who finished bottom of the league, yet had still beaten Blues three days earlier in an FA Cup Quarter Final) when Benitez was brought back, and one at home to a desperate Burnley side – a team that most people have already forgotten were ever in the Premier League.

The writing was arguably on the wall back then.

So, what is McLeish’s problem?  He’s an intelligent bloke, comes across well in the media and is well respected by his peers.  Why, in league terms, is he continuing to fail?

I’m hardly advocating anything new or revolutionary here, but it is quite simply his caution.  Regardless of what Colin Tattum may have said when defending McLeish in his blog last week, McLeish IS too cautious. 

If McLeish went on ‘The Cube’, he’d tell Phillip Schofield that he was happy with his nine lives and that he was quite prepared to leave with nothing as at least he wouldn’t have lost anything.

If McLeish went sky diving he’d want to do it from a park bench, and he’d ask Lee Bowyer to hold his left hand.

A lot is said of formations and his over-eagerness to use 4-5-1 or 4-4-1-1 ahead of 4-4-2, but that’s a little simplistic.  There’s an element of truth to it, of course, but then again at Bolton at the start of the season Blues started 4-4-1-1 and went 2-0 up and ten-man Bolton only equalised once Matt Derbyshire had come on with Blues going 4-4-2 to try and take control of the game – a move that failed.  It’s not all about formations.

What it is about is the players that you buy, the players that you then pick and the intent that your team shows.  The teams that McLeish picks are simply devoid of attacking intent or creativity.  The teams and the systems are too cautious.

Before this weekend’s games Blues were the only Premier League team to have had less than 300 shots at goal (on or off target) and if you take Craig Gardner out of the equation, it’d probably have been less than 35.  That figure may be around 302 now if you include Martin Jiranek chesting on to the post and David Bentley threatening those sat in Row T.

That’s about 8 attempts a game. 

Before the weekend’s games, Blues had hit the target 118 times.  That’s little over 3 per game.  I’m sorry, but if you’re only hitting the target three times a game, then you’re not likely to score too many goals, are you?  It’s fairly simple.

Look at yesterday’s Fulham game.  Apart from Jiranek chesting against the post (and we’re clutching at straws by hearlding that as our best chance), Blues created no “proper” chances.  By proper chances, I mean a player slipped through on goal or a free header or something like that – something like the two headers Bobby Zamora missed, the one-on-one he missed, the header Andy Johnson missed and Steve Sidwell’s shot that hit the post.  That’s five clear cut chances there, and I haven’t even included the two that were scored or Zamora’s header that was cleared off the line in the build up to their second. 

And this is Fulham who, until recently, had won about three away league games in three seasons.  We’re not talking about Manchester United or Liverpool or Chelsea.  This is Fulham.  How are they able to do it when we’re not?

How are Blackpool able to have scored 21 goals more than Blues this season when they’re picking their forwards from a pool that contains the likes of Gary Taylor-Fletcher, Luke Varney and Jason Puncheon?

How are Wolves able to go to Sunderland and score three goals when Blues have barely managed three attempts on target in their past four away games?

The answer has to be the way that they approach games, the intent that they show and the licence that players are given within that system.  It has to be. 

McLeish will never do it though as he is terrified of losing.  He’s scared to death to lose games.  He’ll always pick those he can rely on to not lose a game rather than to go out and win a game.  Given the choice between a player who will put in a shift, track back and work hard for 90 minutes (Keith Fahey, Lee Bowyer, Jean Beausejour) he will 95% of the time pick them over someone who may look lazy and may give the ball away but is capable of producing something out of nothing (Christian Benitez, Mauro Zarate, Alex Hleb, David Bentley).  The facts (his team selections) speak for themselves. 

Blues have drawn fifteen games out of thirty-seven so far.  Take just four of those, and if two had been wins and two had been defeats, Blues would be safe now.  That’s the fine line, but that’s also why it’s always worth taking the risk to try and win games.  Sure, you may lose a few, but you’ll win a few too.

If McLeish played roulette, he’d cover red and black and would be so scared of getting Zero that he’d ask Keith Fahey to cover that for him too.

In various things that I have written in the past I’ve expressed sceptisim about Carson Yeung and the Chinese dream.  Are the board to blame for any of this?  In a word, “no”.  I genuinely don’t think that they are, and if I am saying that – as not so much a critic, but a sceptic – then chances are that they aren’t.

This season McLeish has had the likes of Hleb, Bentley (who, by the way, I think has been a massive let down), Martins, Derbyshire and Zigic at his disposal, and the amount of times he has used more than one (if any at all) you could probably count on one finger.  They’re not all the greatest players in the world, but they’re decent attacking options at this level.  Martins is injured, sure, but he barely played when he was available.  And who can blame Hleb for moaning every three weeks about how crap this move has been for him? 

McLeish has been backed with decent money (£3.5m for Beausejour, £6m for Zigic, £6m for Foster, £5.5m for McFadden, £3m for Johnson, £3.5m for Dann, £1.5m for Murphy, £1.5m for Ferguson, £3.5m for Davies off the top of my head) and in the loan market (Zarate, Benitez, Hleb, Derbyshire, Bentley, Martins) and still hasn’t been able to shake off the belief that a central midfielder “doing a job” on the left is the best thing for the team and that Cameron Jerome as a lone striker works.  It’s mental.  Even in The Championship he was allowed to bring in proper quick wingers in Scott Sinclair and Hameur Bouazza and he soon eased them out of the team too.

If Blues are ultimately relegated, the board do then face a test as, regardless of what you thought of them, it cannot be argued that David Sullivan and the Golds were very shrewd with transfers and money when it came to getting straight back up, as I’ve alluded to above.  It’ll be new for Yeung & Co, and they’ll be tested.

For me though, I’m happy to say that I think that McLeish has taken the club as far as he can (which, in a week’s time, may be backwards).  He’s delivered us a cup and at least one trip to Europe (probably Wales) and I’m thankful to him for that, but he came in with the club fighting relegation (a fight he ultimately lost) and he is now, three and a half years on, still managing a side fighting relegation (a fight that he looks likely to lose).

The Carling Cup win was fantastic and will stay with us all forever.  I’ve said many times that I would always take that day over relegation if I could only choose one, and I still would.  The world doesn’t work like that though.  It’s not a choice in reality and it doesn’t mean that I won’t be mightily pissed off if Blues go down.  I will be, and I’ll blame McLeish as I really, honestly, genuinely don’t think it should have come to this – not by a long stretch.

Drawing the curtains…

31st August 2010 was the day when it was announced that at least 20 million people had been affected by the floods in Pakistan, the day that Barack Obama addressed the US people to confirm the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom, and the day that drilling finally started to save 33 Chilean miners trapped underground.

As such, news that Blues signed three new players needs to be put into a little bit of perspective… it was clearly the biggest news of the day.

On Monday night, when Blues were linked (apparently with some actual justification) to Alexander Hleb, Martin Jiranek, Jean Beausejour and Armand Traore I was like an Ethiopian in a bakery.

When, by Tuesday evening, Blues had signed three out of the four of them, I was delirious with excitement.  Not only had Blues been the busiest team in the Premier League, but they’d added apparent quality in areas in which they were lacking.

“Need some more quality”, we cried.  Hleb was brought in.

“Defensive cover, please?” – in comes Jiranek.

“We’ve got no pace out wide”, we moaned.  Beausejour arrived.

I’ve always admired Hleb.  He’s long been my favourite Belarusian (apart from her).  Whether it’s his monkeyish good looks or the fact that if you signed him from ‘Neckar’ on Pro Evolution Soccer 2004 you knew no one would ever be able to tackle him (people may argue that you can’t judge a player based on a computer game, but their argument would be wrong), there was always something about him.  You don’t play for the likes of Barcelona, Blues and Arsenal if you’re not very good.

Hleb’s undoubted talent is his on-the-ball ability.  His dribbling is Messi-esque in that he can manipulate the ball to the point that it looks like it’s tied to a piece of string attached to his foot.  Clearly he’s not the finisher that Messi is and he has other weaker areas, but he should be a huge asset.  Quite where Alex McLeish will play him is another matter, but I suspect it’ll be out wide.  Hleb doesn’t necessarily fit in with what McLeish likes in the middle of the park (if playing 4-4-2), so I suspect he’ll be out wide or one of three in the middle, supporting a lone striker.  He should do fine in either role, and his signing really is a coup.

We all know what happened with Charles N’Zogbia (rubbish on Pro Evo, incidentally).  The fact is, N’Zogbia is such a little tosspot that within a year he’d have been going on strike and chasing a move to Marseilles, Qatar, Stoke, Celtic or anyone who’d pay him a bit more cash.  He has a reputation that is well earned.  So, if you paid £9.5 million for him, within a year or so you’d have problems anyway, so why not get Hleb in for a year instead?  Better player, more experienced, not French – a great deal all round.

Beausejour is a little more unknown but had a decent World Cup for a very good Chile side.  The N’Zogbia thing highlighted that McLeish was after pace out wide (anyone who watches Blues will appreciate why) and Beausejour appears to be the answer.  There’s no doubt that he’s something of a risk, but as someone who’s actively encouraged McLeish to try and take more risks, it looks like one worth taking.  As I’ve said several times previously, if it doesn’t work, no one will hold a gun to McLeish’s head.  They’ll just stab his dog.

Jiranek looks to be another decent addition.  I confess to not knowing much about him other than what I’ve read, but he’s got a decent pedigree.  I’m not going to say that you can’t play in the Champions League year after year and win a lot of caps for your country if you’re crap because I’ve seen Torsten Frings, but it suggests he should be ok.

Blues were desperately short of defensive cover, especially at centre half, so it’s a useful signing.  Scott Dann and Roger Johnson may look over their shoulders and think it’s a bit unfair that pressure’s being put on them now, but they’ve had it too easy anyway with only Liam Ridgewell, Fraser Kerr and Garry O’Connor as back-up, so sod them – put pressure on them.  Make them play.  Make them work.  Dann’s been excellent so far this season, but perhaps it’ll be a kick up Johnson’s backside to add to the beating Kevin Davies gave him on Sunday.

Obviously Traore slipped away, seemingly preferring to move to Juventus for some inexplicable reason.  Once he indicated that he had a preference for the Old Lady it’s understood Peter Pannu offered to take him down The Anchor pre-match next week, but it wasn’t enough to clinch the deal.  I’d have still liked to have got a left-back in, but defying logic, Liam Ridgewell has made the position his own and you can’t have everything.

I think the best thing about the three signings is the buzz that it’s given everyone.  Things have still been stale around the club – no doubt a hangover given a lot of people’s views on the old board.  The new board have tried to remedy that, but have generally failed as the 21,000 crowd against Blackburn showed.  There’d been further murmurs of discontent given how early transfer activity was followed by ten to twelve weeks of inactivity, but all of a sudden three (seemingly) decent signings on the last day of the transfer window and everyone’s buzzing.  Hopefully it’ll be reflected in the crowd for the Liverpool game.  Hleb himself is a draw, given his quality and experience.

Since the Pandiani/Pennant deadline day, Blues have tended to be linked with all sorts of players in the 24 hours before the curtains are drawn, but generally fans have ended up disappointed in that no one signs or it’s Mehdi Nafti.  This time it’s different though.  Blues were linked to some exciting players and then signed them too.  Credit to all concerned for that and those sceptical fans should be encouraged enough to hopefully start filtering back to St Andrews.

It is, however, strange how Blues (like one or two others) did so much business on the last day of a transfer window open several months.  Of course it’s always been the case that last-minute deals are done, but the three Blues did were somewhat out of the blue.  McLeish is often criticised for not having a Plan B/C/D/H/Z, but appears to have done here.

I think it is worth preaching a note of caution though – the players signed by McLeish (and the way that it happened so quickly) appears to go against the grain a little.  Of course he’s come out and said that he had been tracking the players for a while – he’s not going to say he signed them on Pro Evo over the weekend and thought they looked decent enough for his Master League team.  However, he often harps on about all the checks he likes to do on players and all the rest of it, and one hopes that he’s comfortable with those he’s brought in.  I don’t mind – I’m all for signing loads of cool sounding players on a whim.  McLeish may still harbour some reservations though, perhaps.

Hleb, for example, is in some ways the type of player that McLeish has referred to in the past as “possibly disrupting the dressing room”.  Now, I’m not for one second suggesting Hleb is a trouble-maker – there’s no indication of that.  He is someone who is clearly a step up from what Blues already had though.  He’ll be getting paid a fortune (by both Blues and Barcelona) and when Roger Johnson berates him for not tracking his man, you couldn’t blame him for thinking “yeah, alright ex-Wycombe Wanderer – you tell ME what to do”.  I doubt it’ll happen and have always admired Hleb’s attitude, but it’s just an observation that it is the kind of player McLeish has shyed away from in the past.

As for Beausejour and Jiranek, McLeish does have a habit of signing what he knows, be it a player he knows (Ferguson, McFadden) or be it a British player who’ll have an attitude he knows (Bowyer, Dann, Johnson).  Again, I’m not suggesting that it will end up as a disaster, but you wonder whether there’s a chance he could be out of his comfort zone in signing a Czech centre half and a Chilean winger.

Beausejour is a highly rated, young(ish) international from South America with a good record both internationally and in the Mexican league.  McLeish has signed someone like that before, and we know how that turned out.  It would appear McLeish was never really comfortable with Christian Benitez in his side, for whatever reason.

McLeish has his principles and (rightly or wrongly) he sticks by them.  I just hope that he hasn’t felt he’s had to get out of his comfort zone in signing these people because he couldn’t get his other choices in.

The fact is that all the excitement is justified (hell, I’m excited), but people shouldn’t get too carried away quite yet.  None of these players have pulled on a Blues shirt  (like thousands of fans) and whilst it is easy to get carried away, we’ll just have to wait and see how successful the three of them are.

What I will say though is that, on paper, they’re three cracking signings and it’s great for there to this buzz amongst Blues fans.  I, like many others, am genuinely excited now and cannot wait to see Hleb being let loose against Liverpool and then Beausejour, Jiranek and Zigic being let loose against MK Dons.

It has been said on many occasions recently, including by me, that Blues needed to add three or four more player to the squad.  They’ve done that and they look to be pretty decent acquisitions.  In fact, that may do them a disservice – they look good additions.  There are still one or two areas of the squad that are a little weak, but you can’t complain about it too much.

I’ve said many times over the past few months that Blues’ summer activity could only be judged on 1st September, so here I am judging it.  As far as I’m concerned the board have done a good job for McLeish over the summer, and McLeish will obviously have played his part too.  I don’t think he can have too many complaints at the squad he’s put together now.  It’s up to him to get that squad performing now, and I have no doubt that he will.

Here’s to an enjoyable season…

Bananas

Blues need to bring more players into the squad.  Anyone saying otherwise is wrong.  The fact that McLeish is continuing to try and sign players (“try” being the operative word) and is still being quoted as saying we need more shows that.  We need more bodies.  I was saying at the end of last season that we needed 6 or 7.  We’re still well short of that.

In the past twelve months the likes of Carsley, Johnson, Queudrue, Martin Taylor, Vignal and McSheffrey have all left the club.  None of them were huge assets first-team wise any more, but they had plenty of experience amongst them and were at least bodies who could make up the numbers on the bench or even if you had an injury crisis.  Benitez and Hart have also left the club, from the first team (to be replaced by Zigic and Foster), and so the only ‘squad’ players that Blues have really brought in to replace those I listed above are Michel, Gardner and Valles, the latter of whom has less top flight experience than Marcos Painter.

When you take all of that into account – and think what you like about the players I’ve listed – the squad isn’t particularly deep.  Marcus Bent, who appears to have been completely ostracised by McLeish (not going to China, not being involved in first team friendlies) should really be brought back into the fold now given that Phillips is injured and the only back-up for Jerome and Zigic is Garry O’Connor – arguably less of a talent than Bent.  Again, I know that people don’t like Bent, but there’s few other options.

It’s been said many a time, but Blues were extremely lucky with injuries and suspensions last season – not just by Blues’ standards, but by any team’s standards.  That Blues could break the Premier League record of twelve consecutive unchanged teams didn’t tell you that no other club has ever wanted to pick a consistent side – it tells you that they haven’t been able to.  That’s how lucky Blues were.  Throughout the course of any season you turn on Sky Sports News, see Georgie Thompson and once you’ve stopped staring and starting listening there’ll be references to how a certain team has seven or eight first-team players out or, on occasions, a graphic showing how Chelsea or Bolton or West Ham could name a starting eleven of injured players.  Blues really, really got lucky last season.

Consider, for a second, Blues’ back four if Roger Johnson, Scott Dann and Stephen Carr were all injured.  That is not unrealistic.  In fact, for the Sunderland game on Saturday Carr and Dann have been named as “doubts”.  At present, if you didn’t have those three available, I suspect that your back four for a Premier League game would be, from right to left, Gardner, Parnaby, Ridgewell and Murphy.  That scares me.  Plus it assumes Parnaby is fit, which is about as likely as McLeish signing someone on a whim.

The squad is weaker than last season.  I don’t care what people say about other teams and how they haven’t improved (which is a bit of a myth anyway as the likes of West Ham, Sunderland, Bolton, arguably Wigan and Newcastle all have) because in a sense it’s irrelevant.  Had Blues had a “usual” season last season when it comes to injuries and suspensions – and usual by any team’s standards – the squad would have been stretched.  At present it wouldn’t be able to cope.  I can only remember off the top of my head (and I may be wrong) one Blues player serving a suspension last season, and that was Barry Ferguson missing the 2-2 draw at Anfield.  There’ll be more this season.  Guaranteed.

So, we need players and McLeish and the board obviously acknowledge that.  Why aren’t any more coming in then?

Well, sometimes they just don’t fancy it – fair enough.  Moussa Dembele was an example of that today when he told Blues he preferred “other options”.  Those other options probably included being able to sit at home watching ‘Homes Under The Hammer’ in peace without some Scottish bloke phoning him every ten minutes saying, “Hi Moussa, me again!  I’ve had another think and I’ve changed my mind again… I was doing a wee bit of due diligence and I found a report on Google from when you were playing for Bruges Boys Under 7’s… it says that you missed a sitter from seven yards and I’ve already got a pacy black lad who can do that…” before calling back a little later saying, “Moussa, me again!  Still fancy the move?  Just saw your stats on Pro Evo and you’ve got 89 for accelaration – that’s 88 more than James McFadden!”

If a player doesn’t fancy it, fair enough.  Still, it seems that there’s more to it than that, so what else is holding it up?  It could be, as a few people have begun to speculate, that the money’s not there.  In fairness to McLeish though, when commenting on the collapse of the Dembele and Camoranesi deals, he emphasised that it wasn’t financial reasons.  Either we take him at his word on that (which we probably have to) or he’s being very diplomatic which, let’s face it, he’s very good at.

So, if it’s not financial, is the problem McLeish?  I’ve said many times in the past that this “due diligence” thing concerns me.  He even takes the piss out of himself in interviews now referring to it.  He seems to need to be 384% sure before he’ll sanction a deal.  He seems completely and utterly risk averse and will only sign a player if he’s monitored them for at least nine months and is completely certain about them.  Maybe he remembers Kemy Agustien…

Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s admirable in a sense, but I just don’t think it’s very practical for a Premier League manager – especially one who knows he needs bodies in his squad.  Take Camoranesi, for example.  Now, everyone knows who he is – I must have seen him play 30 odd times myself.  McLeish then decided to fly him over, had two days of talks with him, was impressed with him but had a wee rethink and the deal’s off?  What?  Seriously?  McLeish said it wasn’t a financial decision and so, if we accept that, it must be that McLeish didn’t fancy him.  After all that?  Really?

No one – not a manager, not a chairman, not a random Chinese bloke who’s somehow been appointed to the board of a Premier League football club, not a fan – expects EVERY SINGLE transfer dealing to be successful.  Sometimes they don’t come off – everyone knows, appreciates and accepts that.  Ask Sir Alex Ferguson – for every Rooney there’s a Kleberson, for every Ronaldo there’s a Poborsky and for every Schmeichel there’s a Taibi.  It happens.  It’s part of football.

If my mum sends me to the shops to buy five bananas (because we need five bananas) and gives me a budget of £1.80, it’s my job to do the best I can to get the best available bananas for that £1.80.  Of course I’ll have a look through the various bunches available to see what the best set of five bananas I can get for my £1.80 is.  I’ll be forced into a tough decision though – I need to get five.  I may have to get a bunch where three of them look superb, but the fourth is a little bruised and the fifth one is still quite green.  That’s the nature of buying bananas.  The first one that’s eaten may not quite be ripe yet and the last one may have gone a bit soft and bruised by the time it’s eaten, but the three in the middle are gems – top bananas.  I bought five, three were quality and the other two didn’t quite work out as hoped but hey, they still provided a little potassium.

Imagine though if I went home to my mum and said, “here’s two bananas and £1.10 change” – she’d be well pissed off.  We needed five bananas for a successful set of banoffee pies and I only bought two because I didn’t fancy any of the others.  What happens then?  The banoffee pies are shit.

Blues desperately need players and given that not a lot has happened since May, one or two risks might have to taken.  We may need to take a chance on a banana that’s not yet ripe or one that’s got a few bruises.

We’ve effectively had since January to plan for this season.  It was a very rare occasion when Blues actually knew what division they’d be in the following season very early on and so could have planned.  You’d have hoped that a few more viable targets may have been lined up or one or two people had been sounded out a little earlier.  I’ve said it above, but Foster’s replaced someone who played 36 league games last season and Zigic has replaced someone who played an awful lot of games last season.  They’re replacements, not additions.  The only addition is Valles who, despite a few nice pre-season touches, it less established in the Premier League (or any European top flight) than Joey Hutchison.  I say he’s an “addition”, but as an unproven wide left player he’s probably just replacing McSheffrey.  Who’s replaced Vignal?  Who’s replaced Carsley?  Who’s replaced Queudrue?

48 hours before the season starts we’re being knocked back by players or pulling out of deals and it’s giving us very little time to do much else.  We’re having to go back to the drawing board and you can’t help thinking that McLeish’s drawing board is beginning to get a little full of players he doesn’t quite fancy.

The transfer window annoys me in many ways, but the worst thing it does is make people say “there’s still two weeks to sign people – calm down!”  The season starts in about 36 hours.  If we lose at Sunderland we won’t be able to appeal to the Premier League saying, “woah, woah… hang on a second… we hadn’t signed all our players – can we have a replay??”  By the time the transfer window closes three Premier League games will have gone (three potentially winnable ones too).  That’s nine points.  That’s quite a lot.

Shall I tell you what’s annoying me the most though?  It’s how frustrated I’ve become by it.  That’s what annoys me the most.  I personally think it’s fairly natural in the circumstances, but it annoys me.  We should all be buzzing about the new season but a lot of negativity is setting in.

Blues had their best season in God only knows how long, got two big signings through the door early on in pre-season, aren’t being talked about by anyone as relegation contenders (except Blues fans themselves) and everything should be rosy, but it’s not.  I should be wetting my pants with excitement about Sunderland away on Saturday, but instead I’m thinking “we’ll get done 2-0, pick up some injuries and struggle all season”.  I don’t want to, but that’s what I’m thinking.

That, to me, is the worst thing about it.  How, after last season, are we in a position where we’ve allowed so much negativity to develop amongst the fans on the eve of the new season?  It’s a crying shame, and I’m not even sure who is to blame.  It’s probably a combination of everyone, but it’s such a disappointment that Blues looked set to kick on and now there’s suddenly this negativity developing.

The problem is, with the squad as it is, fans aren’t stupid.  People might suggest that they are, but they’re not.  We’ve seen this before.  Three injuries to key players early on and if the squad’s like it is now, Blues will be really and truly up against it.  Early on in the last two relegation seasons it’s been obvious what’s coming from a mile off – everyone’s known deep down.  It scares me a little that unless three or four decent signings come in (they don’t have to be world class, but have to be able to contribute), we could be looking at that again.  We shall see though – I genuinely hope I’m wrong.

Finally though, after all that, there’s this failure to get McLeish’s contract sorted.  I accept I’ve given him stick above and I have reservations in certain areas, but I think he’s doing a tremendous job for the club overall and the football he’s got the team playing genuinely is excellent.  Blues need to sort his contract out.  Despite his diplomacy (again), it’s obvious from the fact that it’s dragged on this long that there’s some issues there.  I appreciate that he’s tied down for another year anyway, but something needs to be sorted for the sake of all parties.

We shall have to see who else is brought in (and I remain convinced that at least a couple more players will sign – just depends who they are) and see where Blues are at when those players do come in.  We’ll also have to see where McLeish’s contract ends up at.  I genuinely hope that everything turns out for the best, and seriously hope that it will, but I make no apologies for raising some concerns now.

Happy new season.

The danger of sales and a long way for one game…?

What have Gonzalo Higuain, Ashley Cole, Fabio Quagliarella, Luis Fabiano, Tiago and Mesut Ozil got in common?

All got Os in their name?  Yes, granted, that’s one.  Not what I was thinking of though.

All footballers playing at the current World Cup?  Again, yes, ok, that’s true, but again, it’s not what I had in mind.

All better than Alexander Frei?

Ok, ok… I’ll tell you.  They’ve all been stand out performers for their teams so far despite not necessarily being tipped to be so and despite being surrounded by more illustrious names and leading lights both within their own camps and elsewhere.  These players have outshone the likes of Kaka, Rooney, Fabregas, Ronaldo (the greasy one), Cannavaro, Lampard, Drogba, etc.  The giants of World Cup football just haven’t performed.  They’ve been usurped.

Why is that?

Well, you’ve probably gathered that I’m going to tell you…

Adverts.

You didn’t see Mesut Ozil missing a few days training to stand on a balcony performing cringeworthy robot dances across the street from an old bloke who looks like Waldorf out of The Muppets, did you?

Luis Fabiano wasn’t admiring the skills of a young lad with a cauliflower whilst paying for his weekly shopping in Tesco, was he?

There was no sign of Tiago messing around in the African outback staring down a meerkat, was there?

Fabio Quagliarella certainly didn’t have a giant gold statue of himself unveiled in Portugal and Gonzalo Higuain didn’t do any stupid dances with James Corden.

Did Ashley Cole advertise anything?  Of course not.  He was hardly likely to, mind, unless Calvin Klein brought out a new ‘Infidelity’ fragrance.

That stupid bloody Pringles advert – Nicolas Anelka (once he popped, he didn’t stop), Dirk Kuyt (shown up by those around him with skill), Cesc Fabregas (can’t get in the team) and Peter Crouch (can’t get in the team and when he gets on, looks useless).

Nike’s “Write The Future” advert – Fabio Cannavaro displaying his defensive brilliance (now on his way home having conceded three goals against Slovakia, one to a Wigan player and one to an ex-Halifax Town player), Wayne Rooney (dreadful for two games and mediocre for the third), Franck Ribery (home already after being awful and bullying his teammates), Ronaldinho (didn’t make the squad), Didier Drogba (on his way home and the most exciting thing about him this World Cup was seeing who’d written what on his cast) and Cristiano Ronaldo (overhyped, underperforming and only managed a goal against the international equivalent of Paget Rangers when the ball bounced off the back of his head).

Tesco advert – Frank Lampard (passing as erratic as their trolleys).

Coca-Cola advert – Wayne Rooney (has looked less fit than James Corden, who he’s in the advert with).

Castrol advert – Cristiano Ronaldo (appears to have put the oil in his hair and on his right-boot).

Pepsi advert – Kaka (hopeless and unfit), Lionel Messi (being outshone by others,  like 36 year old fat lad Martin Palermo, despite being the greatest player on the planet ever in the history of mankind ever), Lampard (see above), Thierry Henry (already at home meeting the French Prime Minister to discuss how bad France were), Fernando Torres (less shots on target than Emile Heskey) and Drogba (see above).

There’ll be others, but I’ve proven my point.

On a personal note, I fly out to South Africa a little later today.  Had England topped their group, there may have been a bit of a mad dash from Johannesbury airport to Rustenburg, but there’s an extra day now to get down to Bloemfontein, which is nice.  I’m pretty pleased because Rustenburg is apparently, well, crap.  Bloemfontein however is meant to be decent enough (although still a little quiet), so it makes for a better trip.  It’s then down to Cape Town for a further five nights, the last one of which will hopefully be an England quarter final.

I live in hope…  it could yet be a long trip for one game of football…

Germany are not to be feared.  I wrote them off (and some of their players) with a genuinely dismissive tone pre-tournament and then they perhaps surprised one or two with their display against Australia.  It does have to be remembered, however, that Australia were desperately bad that evening and played a good chunk of the game with ten men.

After that Germany lost to Serbia (who finished bottom of the group and were very poor throughout) and narrowly beat Ghana.

It’s not the Germany of old.  The Germany I grew up with was ruthless, efficient and experienced.  This is almost the polar opposite – they’ve been wasteful at times, have a fluid system and are very inexperienced.

Of course, the likes of Ozil, Muller and Cacau have brought them a fresh impetus, and they’ve played some very good and very un-German football.  That inexperience will catch up with them though.  You look at the average age of teams who win the major championships (Italy at the last World Cup), and they’re all late 20s.  Look at the teams who win the Champions League, such as the vastly experienced Inter Milan team of this year or Barcelona the year before (people think of Barcelona as a young team, but Puyol was 31, Marquez 30, Eto’o 28, Xavi 29, Abidal 30) and the Manchester United team the year before that.  You need experience.

I’m not for one second suggesting that England are comfortable favourites, but they should have nothing to fear.  The experience that a lot of the English players have is important – there’s no doubt about that.  Ashley Cole, John Terry, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney have vast, vast experience compared to a lot of the German team.  It is important and shouldn’t be discounted.

If both teams perform to their full potential, then England should win.  That’s not being biased – it’s true.  The English team has a greater number of proven, international class footballers (I’m steering clear of saying “world class” as I think only Ashley Cole can lay claim to that on present form).

The problem, of course, is that despite what I’ve said above, Germany are clearly performing better at present.  England were mediocre against the USA, desperate against Algeria and, in patches, pretty good against Slovenia.  Actually, in a couple of spells against Slovenia either side of half-time, England played with a pace, tempo and intensity that you’d describe as ‘Premier League-ish’) and they’d have troubled any team in the tournament during those spells.  They were unlucky that it was only 1-0 and then, inevitably given the weight on their shoulders, they got nervous.  There were certainly signs there though.

So, if form continues as it has this tournament, Germany will win.  If both teams perform to their full potential, England will win.  And, of course, the Germans will be as nervous as we are – let’s not forget that.  They’re not as confident about their own ability as we seem to be about their ability.

One thing that will change all of my views above is if Jamie Carragher is preferred to Matthew Upson.  Carragher played half the game against the USA and was lucky to stay on the pitch and looked woeful.  Against Algeria he was no better.  Upson, despite a shaky start, was solid against Slovenia.

An area that Germany have clearly excelled at so far is their movement in and around the final third.  They’re quick, clever and don’t play in straight lines.  They’re difficult to pick up.  Upson’s (relative) mobility is a necessity alongside John Terry.  If you’ve got Terry (excellent against Slovenia) and Carragher there, you’ll have the Germans playing on their shoulders all game, dragging them all over the place and exposing their lack of mobility.  Upson has to play.

Right then, I’m off to Bloemfontein.  I’ll blog from there, provided they’ve invented WiFi.

Hand me my vuvuzela…

The great overreaction and corners…

Whatever England’s result against the USA last night, there’d have been a disproportionate response one way or the other.

A win would have been greeted with “bring on the rest of the world” type mentality as everyone decreed that England were ready to go all the way.

A defeat would have been a complete disaster, there’d have been calls for Fabio Capello’s head and the players would have been vilified in the press.

A draw, as we’ve seen, is only just up a level or two from a defeat.

The problem with a tournament like this is that it brings out the worst in people with their reactions, including the pundits and the press.  We’re so bloody engrossed with the event that we have this insatiable appetite for over-analysis.  Suddenly those people who couldn’t name a single Bolton Wanderers player seem to want to contribute to the goalkeeping debate or whether England should play 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1.

I deliberately avoided Facebook pre-game for fears of statuses saying “Heskey wtf” and things like that.  In fairness to Heskey, he justified his selection with a fine display as a target man (should have scored though).  After the game there was one comment on Facebook suggesting that Capello should “fuck off”.  Brilliant.

The mass hysteria drives me insane a little bit.  That the whole country pulls together and heads to pubs to watch the games and that people don their England shirts and St George’s crosses is great – I love that.  However, the whole overreaction to anything and everything (either one extreme or the other) is just a little over the top.  I guess it’s natural given all the hype, but I do wish people would calm down a little and be a little more rational and objective.

To be honest, the way that England’s night went I was fairly content with a draw.  It just seemed like one of those nights where everything went wrong, and for the first time the previously faultless Capello perhaps made one or two errors.

There was obviously the huge Rob Green blunder that I’ll come to later, James Milner only lasting thirty minutes in which he contributed little but fouls (should he have played if he wasn’t 100%?), Ledley King (himself a stand-in centre half) being injured and only lasting one half, Wayne Rooney having a quiet night, Frank Lampard passing to the USA players most of the evening and Jamie Carragher looking less comfortable than piles.

With the way that everything went for England, it did appear to be “one of those nights”.  When it is one of those nights, if you can get through relatively unscathed, it’s no bad thing.

The fact is that this was (in theory) England’s toughest group game, and by some distance.  Algeria and Slovenia will be bright on occasions, and Algeria’s pace could cause a few problems, but those are two games England should be expected to win.  This one was never necessarily a given.  Granted, it’s disappointing that England didn’t win and yes, if they want to win the World Cup they should be beating teams like the USA, but it’s by no means the end of the world.  The USA are well organised, have had some great results over the past few years and with the relationship between the two countries and the English-based nature of a number of their players, this was a huge game for them.

England should still take seven points from the group stages and if they do, they should win the group.  I don’t think that the USA will pick up two wins in their next two games, although I suspect that they will qualify behind England.  If England do win the group, then this result will be quite quickly forgotten.

People often say that you can’t win the World Cup in the group stages, but you can lose it.  It’s a bit of a cliche, but as with most cliches, that’s because it’s accurate and true.  Group games don’t always go to plan and there’s often a few surprise results, particularly in the first set of games.  That happens.  It’s all about getting through.  That’s all that matters.  In the last World Cup, France were dreadful in the group stages, scraping through behind Switzerland.  They ended up in the final though.  It doesn’t really matter how you get through, as long as you do get through.  England are still very well set to get through.  Should they fail to beat Algeria, some of the mass hysteria will be a little more justified.

With Ledley King injured, I’d be very wary of playing Carragher with John Terry against Algeria.  Carragher looked well off the pace last night.  He’s not really had a good season for Liverpool which is why it was a little surprising that Capello begged him to come back into the England fold.  Algeria are lively and have pace, and Terry and Carragher would be a little too immobile for me.  I’d play Michael Dawson with Terry given that Dawson’s probably the centre half out of all those with England who had the best season.  Matthew Upson’s probably above him in the pecking order, given that Dawson only came into the squad from the standby list, but Upson’s not had a great season.

I also think that Gerrard needs to be freed somehow, be it playing him on the left or behind Rooney.  His goal was good last night, but other than that he wasn’t involved as much as you’d hope for someone like him.  He and Lampard, despite what the ITV pundits said, weren’t at their best last night and Gerrard needs to be freed somehow.  Lampard too, if possible – that’s where Gareth Barry could be crucial.

So, to Rob Green…

Firstly, it’s not his fault.  He didn’t mean to do it.  I feel sorry for him in that sense.  He must feel pretty rubbish about it.

Should he have even been the position to do what he did though?  And I don’t mean, should he have been a little more to his right, (yes), I mean should he have been playing?

I’ve said a few times that I wouldn’t have even taken him to South Africa.  My three goalkeepers would have been David James, Joe Hart and Paul Robinson.  I’ve had doubts about quite how good Green is going back to his early days at Norwich when he was much hyped.  I raised it the other day on here too.

I genuinely believe that anyone who has seen much of Rob Green should have known that something like last night was a distinct possibility.  He makes mistakes.  He does it on a fairly regular basis.  He never, ever looks confident.  He always looks nervous and a little apologetic.  He exudes no confidence at all and that can’t bode well for those in front of him.  In the tunnel, pre-match, he looked incredibly tense.  He also looks a bit like a mouse.

As a Birmingham City fan, I’m a little biased perhaps, but I think that Joe Hart is the best English goalkeeper and in that sense, I’d have played him.  I do accept that his lack of experience could be an issue, and that’s why I think that Capello erred in not playing Hart more during the course of the season when he had opportunities to do so and when it was obvious that he was in fine form – the Egypt friendly, for example.

James too makes the odd mistake, but he has pretty much cut them out now and he’s someone that those in front of him have played with many, many times.  James is experienced and, whilst not perfect, is fairly reliable.  He’s also someone you’d back to bounce back from any error – I suspect that Green’s mistake could be a career-ender.

Green should not play for England again in this tournament.  I don’t care what it does to his confidence, as that’s not important in the grand scheme of things now.  He is simply not good enough and unfortunately that’s been highlighted on the biggest stage.  It’s not terminal for England though, although it could be for Green.  Much was made of his “redemption” save from Jozy Altidore in the second half.  The fact is that his positioning for that was poor, he got very, very lucky and he was an inch away from pushing the ball into his own net at the near post.

If he does play again, apparently the whole England team will be behind him.  That may help…

I actually have no problem with Capello’s decision not to name his side until a couple of hours before the game when it comes to outfield players, but I do wonder whether the uncertainty about the goalkeeping position has helped.  It’s such a specialist position and I can’t help thinking that it would have been better to know who your first choice ‘keeper is well in advance, work with him, play him for all friendlies and work with that.  It may not have prevented what happened, and probably wouldn’t, but I can’t see that Capello’s stance helped in any way in that position.

Otherwise though, it’s far from the end of the world for England and they’re still well set.  Had they lost, it still wouldn’t have been the end of the world, but they drew, created a fair few chances, played ok in spells, got the toughest game of the group out of the way and, as I said above, did all of that when everything seemed to go against them.  It’s alright, for now.

Finally, is it just me who thinks that the corner quadrants are ridiculously over-sized?  Seriously, next time you see someone take a corner, have a look – they appear to stretch two yards along both the goal-line and touchline.  Players are taking corners from about two yards in field.  It’s ridiculous.  More ridiculous than the vuvuzelas.

World Cup memories of a 29 year old…

In case anyone hadn’t noticed, the World Cup comes around every four years.  When it does come around, it’s ace and very memorable.  This year’s one is one day away and I can barely contain my excitement – I’ve just had ‘World In Motion’ on repeat seventeen times on Spotify.

The four year cycle kind of means that in between World Cups, quite a lot changes in your life and things move on.  Well, especially at my age.  I guess if you’re about 63 they all seem the same, but as I look back on all those I can remember, I was at very different stages of life throughout…

“It’s the first one I’ve ever understood…”

Italia ’90.  Quite simply legendary.  I was 1 for Spain ’82 and 5 for Mexico ’86 (which I don’t remember) and so Italia ’90 is where it all began for me.  I had everything – Esso coins, stickers, the biggest binder of collectable weekly magazine things ever – it must have started in 1987, the England kit (and what a kit it was).

It was the first time I experienced World Cup fever, and unlike typhoid, it was a fever worth having.  Italia ’90 seemed perfect.  Even looking back now, 20 years on, it still seems perfect.  Even the mascot – that stick man made out of green, red and white blocks – was better than any mascot since.

Whenever I think back to Italia ’90, ‘Nessun Dorma’ by Italian rock band Pavarotti plays in my mind.  Never has a song seemed to fit an occasion so appropriately.  As you read this, you may want to hum it.  All the memories need to be in slow motion too – Gary Lineker turning around and looking up from the pile-on on David Platt with one arm outstretched after Platt’s volley against Belgium.  Think about that in slow motion and Nessun Dorma just comes on automatically.

The main game I remember from Italia ’90 is actually the first one – Argentina v Cameroon.  Maybe it’s because I’d been hooked on the build-up and maybe it’s because the whole of England revelled in Maradona’s failure after he apparently did something in Mexico four years previously, but that game seems really vivid in my mind.

How did Oman Biyik jump so high?

Drugs, probably...

Obviously Roger Milla’s corner flag dance was pretty spectacular too.  Well, actually, it wasn’t spectacular in the slightest.  When you watch it now, it’s pretty pathetic.  It was still good at the time though.  Just think about it now… go on, picture it.  Doesn’t work with Nessun Dorma, does it?

Anyway, as for England, the whole thing was great.  After a troubled 80s, football-wise (Hillsbrough, Heysel, Oxford United being successful), English football needed a boost.  Looking back now, had they been rubbish the whole of English football now might be a very different place.  Italia ’90 appeared to recapture the public’s imagination.  I didn’t really appreciate that at the time.  I was nine.  After the game all I wanted was my He-Man figures and some Ribena, rather than to analyse the social impact that this tournament was having, but with hindsight now, it appeared to reignite the English public’s love of the game.  Is it coincidence that the whole Sky/Premier League generation was only a few years later?  Would it have happened if England had lost their last group game to Egypt and been knocked out?  Well, possibly, but don’t ruin my rose-tinted recollections… (still humming Nessun Dorma?)

It seems such a long time ago, and it’s hard to believe that  babies born during Italia ’90 will be celebrating their 20th birthdays around now, getting drunk watching the current England side in South Africa, asking their mates who Paul Parker was and thinking that Skuhravy is some kind of STD rather than a Czech superstar.

Anyway, it all came crashing down in the semi-final for England when they lost to Germany on penalties.  It was appropriate, really.  As a 9 year old at the time, I didn’t know who Hitler was.  Italia ’90 gave me an early reason to hate the Germans, one that was only further strengthened by GCSE History.

And as you continue humming Nessun Dorma, just think back to Gazza’s tears and Gary Lineker (in slow motion) mouthing “have a word” to the bench whilst indicating that Gascoigne was crying.  Think back to Pearce’s penalty.  Think back to Waddle blasting over the bar.  Think of all of that, and then think of a 9 year old boy hiding behind the curtains in his parents’ living room, crying like Paul Gascoigne, and when someone did “have a word”, him blurting out that he was so upset because “it’s the first one I’ve ever understood”…

Soccerfest 94, man!

The World Cup ventured to the USA for the first time, but England weren’t there.  Did I not like that?

Well, actually, at the time it didn’t quite seem so bad.  I wasn’t really used to England being at World Cups, having only seen the one, and so it didn’t really feel like I was missing out on a quad-annual (is that a word?) experience of watching England at such a tournament.

By now I was 13, and had discovered sneakily claiming to be going to bed, only to sit up watching TV in my room.  Perfect for a tournament going on in the USA where games were on late UK-time.

With England not there, I think it gave me my first insight into world football.  Obviously I’d seen Italia ’90, but a lot of the focus was on England.  With England not there, it meant I wasn’t really following anyone (although I claimed to be supporting Nigeria) and I could enjoy the football.  Actually, it was pretty good.

People speculated that what with the tournament being in American, it might get Americanised.  It wasn’t though, really.  It was just like watching football, but being played in America.  It was fine.  I’m not really sure what people were expecting and how it would be Americanised, but the players didn’t suddenly become obese, obnoxious and generally unpleasant…

Well, not all of them...

For the first time random European teams were quite good.  Romania and Bulgaria were ace.  Other teams who generally aren’t that successful did well too – Ireland and Sweden, for example.  Then there was my first real experience of pure Brazilian football.

With no specific allegiance I was able to marvel in the late night glow of the skills of Hagi, Romario, Stoichkov, Baggio, Batistuta, Letchkov, Bebeto and Sami Al-Jaber.  It opened my eyes to a football world outside of England.  I’m glad it did.

Particular memories include Maradona’s drug-fuelled tongue wagging down a camera, Ray Houghton’s fluke against Italy, Bebeto’s baby-cradle and, of course, Diana Ross missing a penalty from about two yards as part of the opening ceremony…

Miss Ross

Merde

Merde, for those of you who don’t know, means “shit” in French.

To be honest, not only is that what people thought when David Beckham kicked out at Diego Simeone, but it’s also what France ’98 was.  It doesn’t feel particularly memorable at all to me.  In fact, it seemed a bit rubbish.  Any tournament where Ryan Stiles from ‘Whose Line Is It Anyway?’ is a referee can’t be good.

Ryan Stiles doing "pretend you're a Danish referee dashing the hopes of a nation"

I was 17 by now and still at school.  England’s first game against Tunisia was a lunchtime kick-off on a school day.  The school, sensibly, knew that unless the showed it, no one would be there.  I’d have been down in Perfections Snooker Club in Stirchley (like most other school days) otherwise.  So they put it on in the hall.

Also, given that I was 17, I had discovered alcohol, so other games were seized as an excuse to drink anywhere.  The Colombia game was at a mate’s cricket club and then the big one against Argentina was at a mate’s house with about five cans of lager each (we were 17 – that was plenty).

It was a rollercoaster ride.  Going behind early on, then equalising before another 17 year old, Michael Owen, scored a wonder goal, before Beckham’s flick at Simeone, Argentina equalising and the, by now, usual penalties defeat.

My most vivid memory of that game though was Sol Campbell’s disallowed goal.  When his header went in, like David Platt in 1990, I found myself at the bottom of a pile-on.  Beer went everywhere as we celebrated.  I then looked at the TV though and Argentina were attacking.  What was this?  Some new rule?  Could the ‘keeper restart after a goal?  England were still celebrating and Argentina were attacking, and then it dawned on us.  It was disallowed.

Such a bloody disappointment, just like the tournament.

Far East… in Hull

21 and at university.  Actually, I’d finished all of my exams in my final year at Hull University a few weeks before the World Cup started, but my student house on Lambton Street was still available, so rather than returning home to be nagged at by parents about not having a job, I just stopped there, for the whole month, watching every single game at ridiculous hours in the morning and doing little else other than drinking.

With the times going the other way than USA ’94, the earliest games were at about 6.30am or 7.00am.  I forget which.  They’d then go on until early afternoon, by which time it was about time for a pint in the pub.  It was brilliant.

I actually remember getting up at 6.30am one morning to watch China v Costa Rica and thinking, “this is too much”.  Good game though.

I remember how red the South Korean fans were.  It was crazy.  It seemed like the whole of South Korea were painted red.  Well, their upper torsos anyway.  It was so bloody red.

Red

It looked incredible, the whole thing did.  What a setting for a World Cup, over in South Korea and Japan.  For the England games, my setting was pretty spectacular too – I went to The Main Event on the Beverley Road/Cottingham Road crossroads in Hull.

The pubs were all opening early, and every single England game was rammed.  People literally would not buy pints and would just buy crates of bottled Carlsberg so that they had sufficient supplies, could sell additional bottles on at a profit and could then stand on the crate for a better view.

The best game, of course, and one of the best football days I’ve ever had, was the Argentina game – Beckham’s revenge.  We all know what happened…

Take that, Stiles

The game was one of the early ones – 7.00am kick off.  My uni ball was that night – 7.30pm kick off (going on until 2.00am).  All that there was to do in between was drink and celebrate.  And I did.  What a day.  That evening I ended up at a black tie do at Beverley Racecourse in a tuxedo, black shirt, white bow tie, white shoes and my hair dyed in two different colours (yellow and purple) to look leopard-skinned.

I'm the attractive, sober-looking chap in the middle (some seventeen hours after starting drinking)

That night I met (and then in a fit of paranoia, ran away from mid-conversation) one of Atomic Kitten.  I still hope one day that I’ll read an interview with her where she’s asked, “what’s your strangest ever encounter with a fan?”  “Well, there was this once at a racecourse when a fat lad with yellow and purple hair…”

As for the football, that was as good as it got (the Denmark game doesn’t count) and it all came crashing down a week or so later when some toothy Brazilian lobbed Seaman…

I was there…

By 2006 I was a proper grown-up (possibly), and I did something I hadn’t thought about much previously.  I actually went to the World Cup in Germany.

The first game against Paraguay was a Saturday.  We drove to Frankfurt, couldn’t get a ticket, watched it in a pub and drove back to Birmingham.

England v Paraguay actually AT the World Cup! (In a pub, two miles from the stadium...)

When I went back to Germany a few days later, I did actually have a ticket to England’s win over Trinidad & Tobago which was in Nuremburg which, apparently, is where some slightly mad bloke did a few speeches once or twice in the past.  The area he did those speeches was literally next to the stadium.

It's in black and white to make it more like when Hitler was there...

Next it was Koln (Cologne, where they make toilet water) for the final group game against Sweden.  No tickets, again, and with England already qualified, no need to go to the game because where there’s Sweden, there’s Swedish girls.  Doing the ‘Ikea Challenge’.  On the steps of Koln Cathedral.  Obviously.

Next up was Ecuador in the last sixteen in Stuttgart – tickets secured.

I'm not the one in the hat

Before the stunning stadium in Gelsenkirchen for the ill-fated quarter final against Portugal.

Calm before the storm...

The whole experience was stunning though, and I’d recommend it to anyone.  The one thing that you miss when you just watch a game on TV and then go about your normal life in between games is the whole festival that goes on alongside it, the partying, the atmosphere, the interaction between fans from different countries…

Dutch fans in a Stuttgart fountain

and the fact the you get to meet celebrities everywhere…

Some bloke off the telly

… as well as the friendly locals…

… and you might even bump into Ronaldinho.

Ronaldinho

It’s not all about England though – you get to take in other games, such as Zidane’s masterclass versus Spain (and what a view I had)…

Zidane's there somewhere...

Or Ukraine versus Tunisia to see stars like Shevchenko…

Sheva

… and Nafti.

FIFA World Footballer of the Year 2011

Ultimately though, it all ended in disappointment again for England.

That winker...

Here’s hoping that in just over four weeks time it’s a lap of honour that those England players are on, not a lap of appreciation…

Enjoy South Africa 2010 and here’s to some more memories.

Players not to watch…

I’ve already had an alternative look at the teams – time now to have a look at some of the players who will supposedly light up the World Cup.  Or not.

According to a huge number of previews, players to watch at the forthcoming tournament include the likes of Lionel Messi, Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo and Wesley Sneijder.

What?  Really?  That Messi chap?  World Footballer of the Year?  You think he might have a decent tournament, yeah?  Blimey.

Rooney?  The fat, balding English lad?  Are you serious?  He only got 34 goals for Manchester United last season.  You think he might do alright though?

Cristiano Ronaldo?  Most expensive footballer ever?  That Cristiano Ronaldo?  You really think that he might play well?

Sneijder?  Wesley Sneijder?  The best player in the Champions League this season and a massive part in Inter Milan winning the trophy?  He’ll do ok, will he?

Some bold predictions, I’m sure you’ll agree.  Necks really on the line with some of those…

Anyway, sod convention.  Rather than focussing on the relatively easy task of identifying highly gifted footballers who may well play really well in the summer, mainly because they generally always play really well, let’s take a look at some players not to watch this summer;  players who, I predict, won’t be any good and who I wouldn’t waste any time focussing any attention on.

Cesc Fabregas

Possibly a controversial first choice, but hey, I’m not just going to name North Korea’s 3rd choice goalkeeper (actually a centre forward) or Greece’s fourth choice centre half.  I need to at least name some players likely to feature.

Fabregas is the heartbeat of Arsenal’s side, but then he’s in the middle of the park alongside Abou Diaby or Alex Song, so it’s not hard to look good.  Sure, he’s a neat and tidy player, but is he actually that good?  He passes fairly well and gets around the park ok chipping in with a goal here and there, but Kevin Nolan does that too.

Suddenly, from playing with Diaby and Song, he’ll be pitched into a midfield alongside Andres Iniesta and Xavi.  Those two take being a clever little Spanish midfielder to a different level.  Xavi, for me, is probably the best player in the world.  Iniesta’s not too far behind.  At Barcelona the two of them are imperious together.  Fabregas alongside them is going to look like Keith Andrews.  That will be the case this summer for Spain and maybe next season for Barca too.

In such a talented side, Fabregas is going to end up looking like the weak link.  I’m not saying that he’ll be dreadful, but I am saying don’t bother watching him as he won’t do a lot, will be average, and those around him will be much better.

Rene Gattuso

Everyone must be fed up of Gattuso now, surely?  There’s no novelty to him anymore.  He trundles around the pitch snarling, having a bad goatee beard and generally fouling people.

He’s meant to be the person who breaks up the play for Italy, and he does, by being incapable of picking a pass to one of his teammates.  His limited ability has no place at a supposed festival of football.

(As an aside, a good sweepstake to run would be how many times commentators say “you may remember that he played for Glasgow Rangers in the late 1990s” or “he’s actually married to a Scottish woman”.  They say it every time he plays…)

Alexander Frei

Switzerland, as I have established previously, are fairly rubbish.  They’re a bit like Paraguay – they’re never, ever, ever going to win anything, but they always seem to pop up at the major tournaments.  No one pays much attention to them, they get knocked out in the group stages and everyone forgets they were ever there in the first place.

Whenever Switzerland turn up at one of these tournaments, Alexander Frei is always touted as their “key man”.  Dig out a World Cup preview, either from this year or 2006, or one of the Euro ones from the past decade, and I bet it says in the Swiss section, “One To Watch – Alex Frei”.

Well don’t watch him, because he’s no good.  Switzerland actually have some decent young players (Inler, Barnetta, Vonlanthen, Derdiyok) but when Switzerland’s World Cup campaign starts and you’re settling down in front of ITV to watch them play, I guarantee you that Clive Tyldesley, after mentioning “that famous night in Barcelona” or “that famous night in Istanbul” (for no reason), will (un)reliably inform you to “keep an eye out for Frei, Switzerland’s centre forward”.

Honestly, don’t waste the energy.  He’s done nothing in a major tournament yet and, at his age, won’t do anything at one now.  He’s too old, too slow, not big enough and not strong enough.  He’s like the Swiss Paul Dickov.  Would Paul Dickov light up a World Cup?  No.  Nor will Frei.

Lukas Podolski

I was in Germany for the last World Cup and the locals absolutely loved Podolski.  In fairness, he had a decent tournament, but so did plenty of other German players.  Still, it was Podolski who really seemed to capture the imagination of the public and there was a sense that he’d go on to achieve the kind of status that someone like Wayne Rooney enjoys in England.

Unfortunately for Podolski, he seems to have gradually become dreadful.  He has scored seventeen league goals in Germany since the 2006 World Cup.  That’s over four seasons.  He’s played plenty of games too – there’s been no long term injuries.  That’s an average of 4.25 goals per season.  Jermaine Defoe, who won’t start for England, scored more than that in one half against Wigan this season.  Darren Bent, dropped from the England squad, scored as many goals in six months as Podolski’s managed in four seasons.  Liam Ridgewell scored more league goals than Podolski this season.

I could equally have picked Miroslav Klose in this category, given that he’s been equally dreadful of late (though he does have that knack of scoring in big tournaments, so I’m steering clear).  Indeed, Podolski, Klose and Mario Gomez (another striker in the Germany squad) were voted the top three flops in the Bundesliga last season.  Podolski did top that list though, which is why he heads the list of German strikers not to bother watching this summer.

Aaron Mokoena

Mokoena has the honour of captaining the host nation at the World Cup.  However, I hope FIFA intervene, remove the armband and give it to Steven Pienaar as at least he has a modicum of ability.

Mokoena has somehow carved out a career for himself as a third choice centre half for struggling Premier League clubs.  He’s really not very good.  Not only is he not particularly good, he’s quite vicious (both intentionally and unintentionally, at times) and is more likely to injure an opponent than actually win the ball.

As with Gattuso, those wanting to enjoy the festival of football should not watch Aaron Mokoena.  Not even when he leads South Africa out in the opening game.

Tim Cahill

Cahill is probably Australia’s main man, which given that the rest of their squad is made up of Middlesbrough players isn’t really saying much.

I quite like Cahill as a club player at Everton.  He suits their ethic.  He works hard, has a good engine and can fill in in a variety of roles.  This is the World Cup though.  It’s a bit of a step up from that.  Scoring headers from corners isn’t going to impress anyone here.  It’s all well and good doing that away at Bolton Wanderers on a Tuesday night to earn your team a 1-1 draw, but I’d like to see a little more at a tournament like this, please?

A bit like Fabregas, I’m not saying that Cahill will be dreadful, just that the whole thing will sort of pass him by and you won’t notice that he’s there.  Australia will finish bottom of their group and soon be on the boat back to Sydney, so don’t waste your time watching Cahill as his only talent is heading the ball and there’s Nicola Zigic or Peter Crouch to watch if you’re into that kind of thing.

Cuauhtemoc Blanco

Not only is his Christian name rubbish, but he’s nearly 40.  What is he even doing in South Africa?

He didn’t have a great deal of pace at the best of times, but now he’s just slow and dreadful and is STILL living off his ‘Blanco Bunny Hop’ from the World Cup in France in 1998.

Part of the reason you shouldn’t watch Blanco is because if you do, the commentators will continually refer to the ‘Bunny Hop’ and you’ll expect him to do it.  He’s unlikely to anyway, but even if he does, you’ll be left with such a sense of disappointment.

For a start, it’s so 1998.  That’s the year of the Spice Girls and Monica Lewinsky.  That’s the year that having curtains (the hairstyle) was cool.  It was the year Armageddon came out.  It’s so long ago.  None of those things are cool anymore, and nor’s Blanco’s Bunny Hop.

Also, when you see it, you’ll realise that it’s just a bloke getting the ball between his two ankles and jumping with it.  It’s really not tricky.  Anyone can do it.  Go on, go and try it now.  Go and find a football or a small dog or something.  It’s not even remotely difficult.

So, because he’s old, got a Christian name that looks like his parents just blindly banged some letters on a keyboard to come up with and because of the Bunny Hop, blank out Blanco.

John Terry

England’s Brave John Terry.  A few years ago I used to really enjoy watching him.  He was a proper central defender.  He’d get in the way of everything and anything, he’d block, tackle and head.  He’d do everything to keep the ball away from his goal.  He was a pure defender.

Now though, possibly partly due to him sleeping with a former teammate’s missus, he looks distracted.  Like Rio Ferdinand of late, he’s looked ponderous and error-prone.  He hasn’t looked fit either.  He’s never been the quickest anyway, but he even seems to have lost a couple of yards of pace.

Most importantly with Terry is that he seems to have a lost a little bit of his soul.  Now, I’m no psychologist, but I like speculating wildly.  It seems to be that everything that’s gone on lately has taken its toll on him mentally.  He always looked so confident and commanding on the pitch.  He now looks quiet and a little afraid.  He used to exude confidence to all those around him.  It now seems that the only reason people are looking to him is to check he’s still awake.  He used to be a leader of men.  Now he appears to need to be led himself.

Something seems to have died inside John Terry, and so he’s someone not to bother watching, unless you want to see errors, a man who’s lost part of his soul or Vanessa Peronncel’s scratch marks.

Dirk Kuyt

In a Dutch squad filled with flair players who look smart and have neat, normal haircuts, there’s also Dirk Kuyt.  One reason not to watch Kuyt is because of how ridiculous looking he is.

Still, I’m not really that shallow and it’s also down to his football that I’d warn people not to watch him.  He’s just so dull and industrious.  Quite how he got so many goals for Feyenoord is beyond me.  Liverpool bought him as an out and out striker based on his Feyenoord record and quickly learned that he had all the attributes of a mule.  No grace, no finesse, no pace, nothing.  Like a mule though, he works fairly hard, and so they shoved him out on the wing, asked him to run up and down a lot and just tried to keep the ball away from him.

Whether he’ll feature much for Holland, I don’t know.  Given the presence of the likes of Sneijder, van Persie, Robben (though he’s now injured, apparently), van der Vaart, Elia and Huntelaar in forward positions, Kuyt would get nowhere near the starting eleven for me, but if he does, do yourself a favour – don’t pay him any attention.  It’s for the best.

Javier Mascherano

Mr Anti-Football.  A sly, cheating, whining, horrible creature.  You get the impression that he’d kick his own grandmother if it would further his own cause.

Being such a vile little creature, he’ll probably fit into his manager’s plans perfectly.  Like Maradona, Mascherano is an odious thing who ideally will join the growing list of injured players pre-tournament.  That he gets to share a field with the likes of Messi and Aguero makes me feel ill.  To think that he’s in the squad and a player a thousand times better than him in Esteban Cambiasso, who plays the same position, has been left out defies logic.

If you like watching complete and utter cheating and “gamesmanship” of the top order, enjoy Mascherano this summer.

Roque Santa Cruz

The ultimate footballing mercenary.  He had it all so good at Bayern Munich, only to be bombed out to Blackburn Rovers.  Suddenly he realised that he needed to actually do something otherwise he’d end up playing for Blackburn forever.  He put in some effort for a year (about the only time he has in his career) and displayed his undoubted natural talent.  He knew that the transfer talk would soon start, Blackburn would have to sell and he could move back to a big club on big wages and sit on the bench again.

Sure enough, along came Manchester City with more money than sense and Santa Cruz is happy again – fifth choice striker on ridiculous wages and very little effort required.

Unfortunately for Paraguay, the fact that he hasn’t broken a sweat for 12 months means that their star player (who, like Alex Frei above, will be mentioned at the start of each of their matches as “the one to watch”) will be ineffective, mediocre and generally lacklustre.  Save yourself the hassle and don’t bother watching him.

So, there you go – eleven players who you shouldn’t watch.  If you do, that’s your choice, but remember I did warn you – especially when it comes to Kuyt.

Why nobody can win it…

How boring are all these stories about who can win the World Cup and why England/Spain/Brazil/South Korea/Portugal can win it?  “If Rooney stays fit, England have a great chance” or “Spain’s midfield looks supreme” or “Brazil are finally defensively sound” or “if South Korea bribe the referees again as in 2002, they’ve got a chance” or “Portugal have no Quim”.

Not only are they boring, but those writing them are missing a trick.  They’ve got a one in thirty-two chance of being right.  That’s not a lot.  That’s tough.  That’s a lot of people being proven wrong.

I, on the other hand, like to be proven right, so I’ll go for a thirty-one in thirty-two chance, and guess who CAN’T win the World Cup.  In fact, sod it, I’ll name more than that, and then I’ll be right every time, except one.  I’m happy with those odds.

So, let’s go through who won’t be lifting the World Cup, and the reasons why…

Rio Ferdinand

Thanks to Emile Heskey.  Actually, I do mean that Heskey should be thanked.  Ferdinand hasn’t had a good game for England in about 18 months, and has barely played for Manchester United this season.  When he has played, he has looked nowhere near his best.  Two years ago he was arguably the best centre half in the world.  Now he looks ponderous and error-prone.  He also doesn’t look like he’s anywhere near fully fit.  Granted, Ledley King’s not exactly the epitome of good health, but at the same time, at least when he plays he looks capable of finishing the game, if not the warm-down afterwards.  I no longer rate Matthew Upson much, but I’d be happy enough with King or Michael Dawson in alongside John Terry, if not even Jamie Carragher.  I was worried about Ferdinand pre-tournament, and this could be a blessing in disguise.

Still, I actually meant teams, but I wanted to be topical.  Who else won’t win it then?

Mexico, Uruguay, South Korea, Greece, USA, Slovenia, Australia, Serbia, Denmark, Japan, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia, North Korea, Switzerland, Honduras and Chile

Let’s face it, they’re all shit.  Some are shitter than others, but they’re still all shit.

They’re all no hopers.  The majority of them would struggle to give Leyton Orient a game.

Slovenia, for example – their best player has just been released by West Bromwich Albion.  How are they meant to cope playing a side full of Chelsea, Manchester United and Spurs players?

As for some of the others, North Korea?  What, seriously?  Are they really in it?  New Zealand’s best player plays for Plymouth Argyle.  Chile have a player called Waldo Ponce.

Yes, some of them might be ok.  Serbia and Denmark may make it to the 2nd Round, but even then they’ll be beaten by a proper team with a full set of proper players rather than one or two who play in top leagues and the rest who play in Belgium.

So, there you go, already that’s 18 teams who won’t win the World Cup.  Easy, this.

Who else won’t win it?

A team with a black goalkeeper

Science and history combined prove that a team with a black man between the sticks won’t win it.

Black goalkeepers are rubbish.  That is science.  People may think that it’s lazy racism on my part, but it’s not.  They’ve brought it on themselves.  As a Birmingham City fan, I have seen this first hand in the shape of Richard Kingson.  He made one Premier League appearance, was rubbish, gifted Portsmouth the win, and was soon shipped out.  He’s now Wigan Athletic’s fourth choice ‘keeper, and that’s behind that Serbian bloke with long hair and short sleeves who is rubbish himself, so that tells you how bad Kingson is.  Yet he is Ghana’s first choice.  Ghana, a team wishing to be taken seriously, have Kingson in goal.  I’m not sure why it is, but black goalkeepers are rubbish.  In all other positions black people tend to be fine – Maicon, Ashley Cole, Ledley King, Marcos Senna, Robinho, Didier Drogba – but they can’t do it in goal.  That is science.

As for history, well, like science, you can’t argue with history.  No team has won the World Cup when they’ve had a black goalkeeper playing for them.  Brazil have won the World Cup five times, and on each occasion they’ve had a white man in goal.  The only successful black man in gloves ever is Michael Jackson, and he won’t be lifting the World Cup either.  And some boxers, I suppose.  They’d struggle to lift the World Cup too though, what with the size of boxing gloves.

So, if Mr Capello is reading this, then bear that in mind and play Joe Hart or Rob Green.  Preferably Hart, because I have a worry that Green listens to too much Motown judging by some of his performances this season.

If a black goalkeeper isn’t going to get his hands on the trophy (probably because he’d drop it), then that then rules out…

African teams

And, in fairness, it’s not just down to the hue of their shot stoppers.  They could get Jerzy Dudek on loan and they still wouldn’t.

Every four years we get told that this is an African team’s year.  Just because Cameroon fluked a win against Argentina in Italia ’90 and then Senegal did the same against France in 2002,  people seem to believe that the African teams are competitive.  They’re not.

In the 90s it was Nigeria who were going to win the World Cup.  Then early this decade it was Cameroon.  In 2006 and this year it could be Ivory Coast.

Well, it won’t be, will it?

Like Serbia and Denmark, each of the teams has about two good players, and then the rest play in the French second division, in Qatar or for Portsmouth.  Yes, Drogba (if fit) is world class, but then the centre half plays for Hibs.  Yes, Samuel Eto’o is top drawer, but then Andre Bikey plays for Burnley.

Of course they’ll be entertaining and will probably be involved in some 5-3 games, but none of them actually have a chance of winning the thing.  In fact, none of them will probably progress through the group stages.

As for the idea that host nations often do well, that’s only when the host nation is good (Brazil, England, Argentina, France, Germany) or when they cheat (South Korea).  South Africa, like the other African teams, have no chance, just like…

Ireland

The World Cup’s 33rd team.

They’re worth an honorary mention in that, whilst they won’t win it, they’ll probably try and either claim that they did or get FIFA to change the rules so that they did.  Like, for example, when they were drawing with France and Thierry Henry expertly used his hand (he could be a goalkeeper… no, wait…) to set up a French winner.

Ireland then wrote to FIFA saying, “yes, ok, we were only drawing the game and France were all over us at the time and would have most likely gone on to score anyway or beaten us on penalties, but seriously, please, can’t we go to the World Cup instead of them?  Please?  WE NEARLY DREW WITH FRANCE – IS THAT NOT ENOUGH??”

Clowns.

Right, that only leaves nine teams who might win it now, given that we’ve discounted the other twenty-four (including Ireland).  Who else won’t win it?

Germany

Write them off at your peril, they say.  Well, actually, this time just write them off.

Yes, sure, they’re never fancied, but they always do well when it counts, but not this time.  Their squad is littered with mediocrity.  That they’re worried about losing Chelsea’s least effective player to injury illustrates that.  Lahm apart, the rest of the squad is average at best.

Germany’s best striker, by a distance, is Kevin Kuranyi, and he’s not in the squad.  Klose and Podolski (both in the squad) have about six goals between them all season, and seem to be living off past reputations.  Kiessling (of Bayer Leverkusen) is a good striker, but probably won’t be involved much as Joachim Low persists with the more high profile, more rubbish strikers.

With Ballack out and Schweinsteiger still adapting to his holding role, the midfield is about as threatening as butter.

Germany will not win it.

Nor will…

Portugal

People actually say that they don’t look as strong as in previous years, but with Ronaldo, Nani, Simao and Liedson, plus Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso, they have a pretty talented set of players midfield onwards.

Still, and perhaps it’s just my perception, there doesn’t seem to be the belief there this time, either from Portugal or from others looking in – perhaps based on their shocking (and near disastrous qualifying campaign).  Defensively, without Bosingwa, they look a little one-paced and whilst Carvalho is class, some of the others in defence (and in goal) are a little short of top class, like Bruno Alves.

Portugal, for me, won’t win it.

Joining them in not winning it will be…

England

Sorry, but like all the other teams, England won’t win it.

There’s an over reliance on Wayne Rooney to carry the team, and regardless of what people say, his temperament is questionable and he will be a target for teams looking to get him to react.

If Rooney doesn’t perform, either due to form, suspension and injury, hopes will be placed on the shoulders of Gerrard and Lampard.  Gerrard’s had a worryingly poor season by his standards, and there’s no real sign of improvement, whilst Lampard seems to perform in qualifiers and then freeze on the big stage.

The centre halves have to be a massive worry too.  Terry and Ferdinand two years ago were brilliant – the best partnership in world football.  Now Ferdinand’s out, but that’s no great loss.  Terry too though has been fairly poor this season, doesn’t look fit and probably couldn’t be blamed for having other things on his mind, like what his opponent’s missus looks like.

Then there’s the indecision over who will be in goal, plus the lack of depth to the squad.  A few injuries and suddenly Carrick, Warnock and Heskey may be in?  It’s enough to send a shiver down the spine.

No chance, England.  No chance.

Just like…

Italy

Four years ago everyone said they were too old, but they won it.  They have the same squad now and are genuinely too old.

Cannavaro’s just signed for a club in the UAE which tells you all you need to know about his ambition now, and the likes of Gattuso, Pirlo and Camoranesi, yes, they were fresh and effective ten years ago, but now?

Claudio Marchisio is pretty ace and will inject some energy to the midfield, but they’ll need it because otherwise, seriously, they’re too old.  Like the England rugby team of 2003 who peaked and were at their absolute optimum for the World Cup in Australia, so Italy did four years ago.  They’re on a downward curve now and won’t even make the semi finals.

Argentina

Diego Maradona.

France

They’ve not been spoken about a lot, the French, but when you look at their squad on paper, it looks strong.  Ribery, Malouda and Gourcuff are top players all in form, and with strong characters behind them, both in midfield and defence, they look decent.

I do worry about their goalscoring ability though, with Henry not the player he was, Anelka seemingly becoming more of a link man, Govou ageing and Cisse, Ban Arfa and Gignac not proven at the top level.

Also, a bit like Argentina, they have a coach who has the capacity to ruin everything in Raymond Domenech, who at times baffles people with his decisions.  Throw in their stuttering qualifying and their recent defeat to China and they can be written off too.

Holland

Cruyff, van Basten, Gullit, Rijkaard, Bergkamp, de Boer, Kluivert, Kemy Agustien, van Nistelrooy.  The Dutch have always had some of the best players on the planet.  They’ve never been able to put it together at a World Cup though.

This time it’s Sneijder, van Persie, van der Vaart and Robben – all superb players.  They won’t do it though, mainly because they never do.  It’ll all go wrong, because it always does.  That’s about the best argument you can come up with for Holland not winning it.  Plus their defence is rubbish.

Brazil

They’ve become too un-Brazilian.  Dunga, a horribly boring (yet effective) footballer has become their horribly boring (yet effective) manager.

Sure, they’re nice and solid and have some top defenders, but Kaka’s been injured and out of form, Robinho’s been playing in the equivalent of the League of Wales for the past six months, Ronaldinho’s not there and you just feel that the Brazilian flair that is their hallmark and, after all, a key part of their success, is going to be lacking.

Sure, they have Nilmar, Grafite and Luis Fabiano, but they’re not quite the standard of players that you expect to carry a team all the way through a World Cup and so Brazil, unfortunately for them, won’t win it.

All of which means that there’s only one team left who won’t win it, and that is…

Spain

They’re too small for a start.  How are they going to defend corners and set pieces?

Also, a bit like Holland, everyone always says “this is their year”, but they generally can’t perform on the big stage either.  Granted, they did it at the European Championships, but they had a group there that New Zealand could have qualified out of (if they were European), edged past Italy on penalties in the Quarter Final, got lucky and faced Russia again in the Semi Final, having beaten them 4-1 in the group stage and then won 1-0 against a poor Germany side in the final.  It was a poor tournament that they won, and this is a different kettle of fish.

This time they’ll come up against better teams (not in their group, mind, which is piss easy) and they’ll return to their always the bridesmaid type role.  Heavily fancied, but ultimately not one of the two who make it to the front.  Not sure that’s quite what that expression means, but it still works.

The pressure on them will be huge too with so much expectation – can they handle that?  Will teams have seen how easily Inter Milan disposed of Barcelona (the club version of the national side) in the Champions League and taken that on board?

Spain may be favourites, but they won’t win it either.

In fact, having read all that, you’ll be able to establish that no one will.

I guess, in reality someone will actually win the World Cup though, and logically if I am going to tip someone, it’ll have to be the team that I struggled to write off the most.  Completely unexpectedly to me, that’s Holland.

I still say they won’t win it though.  At least I know I will be right thirty-one times (plus Ireland).